Monday, June 18, 2012
Nothing will happen in Europe
For Greece to get it right there has to be debt forgiveness or default. Yes, there will be chaos. The ball is in Germany’s court now; relinquish or face defeat in Greece. Relinquish and face defeat at home. This is the eye of the hurricane.
When it comes to Greece there is one word and only one word that makes any difference and that word is “Default.” Europe cannot afford it. Greece has $1.3 trillion in total debt and a vast amount of it now resides at the ECB either in direct sovereign obligations or in securitizations where loans, asset-backed securities and mortgages have been guaranteed by the banks, all of which are bankrupt and being supported by the EU or by the sovereign which has the same credit quality as a beggar on the streets in Calcutta.
All that the Greek elections did really was to provide a more friendly negotiator than the opposition but the numbers speak for themselves and they are unsustainable. The EU made the private bond holders pick-up part of the tab while lending Greece $35 billion more than was written off. Old debt was paid off with new debt; an old story and almost always the same conclusion. So, Berlin, it's time to man-up. It's fourth down and punt.
For us, you and I, nothing happens until the socialist utopia finally runs out of other people's money.
Let us in America hope and pray, versus hopium and delusion, that the Chief Teleprompter doesn't send American taxpayer dollars to Europe in massive quantities to keep the game alive any longer.