Parisian Family Office, CEO. Began Wall Street, 1982. Founded investment firm, CHIPPEWA PARTNERS, Native American Advisors. Active Trader. White Earth Chippewa Tribal member. Was NYSE/FINRA arb. Conservative, raised on Great Plains reservations. Pureblood, clot-shot free. In a world elevated on a dopamine binge, this is his take! Written from MT Ghost Ranch on the Yellowstone River, TN farm Pamelot or San Jose del Cabo, Mexico, CASA TULE'. Always been, will always be, an optimist.
Thursday, June 29, 2017
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
Monday, June 26, 2017
Sunday, June 25, 2017
No truer words were ever spoken. The American taxpayer once again, used as a tool!
Yellen continues Bernanke's willful ignorance. The folly will be exposed but it will be hard to stomach.
Saturday, June 24, 2017
Dear Mr. Dudley,
Your recent remarks in the wake of last week’s FOMC statement were notably unhelpful.
In particular, your excuses for further rate hikes to prevent crashing unemployment and rising inflation stunk of rotten eggs.
Quite frankly, crashing unemployment is a construct that’s new to popular economic discourse, and a suspect one at that.
Years ago, prior to the nirvana of globalization, the potential for wage inflation stemming from full employment was the going concern. Now that the official unemployment rate’s just 4.3 percent, and wages are still down in the dumps, it appears the Fed has fabricated a new bugaboo to rally around. What to make of it?
For starters, the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy has successfully pushed the financial order completely out of the economy’s orbit. The once impossible is now commonplace.
For example, the absurdity of negative interest rates was unfathomable until very recently. But that was before years of central bank asset purchases made this a reality.
Perhaps, the imminent danger of crashing unemployment will give way to the impossibility of negative unemployment. Crazy things can happen, you know, especially considering the design limitations of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-death model.
Secondly, muddying up the Fed’s message with inane nonsense like crashing unemployment severely diminishes the Fed’s goal of providing transparent communication. In short, Fed communication has regressed from backassward to assbackward.
During the halcyon days of Alan Greenspan’s Goldilocks economy, for instance, the Fed regularly used jawboning as a tactic to manage inflation expectations. Through smiling teeth Greenspan would talk out of the side of his neck. He’d jawbone down inflation expectations while cutting rates.
Certainly, a lot has changed over the years. So, too, the Fed seems to have reversed its jawboning tactic. By all accounts, including your Monday remarks, the Fed is now jawboning up inflation expectations while raising rates.
Congratulations and Thank You!
History will prove this policy tactic to be a complete fiasco. But at least the Fed is consistent in one respect. The Fed has a consistent record of getting everything dead wrong.
If you recall, on January 10, 2008, a full month after the onset of the Great Recession, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke stated that “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” Granted, a recession is generally identified by two successive quarters of declining GDP; so, you don’t technically know you’re in a recession until after it is underway. But, come on, what good is a forecast if it can’t discern a recession when you’re in the midst of one?
Bernanke’s quote ranks up there in sheer idiocy with Irving Fisher’s public declaration in October 1929, on the eve of the 1929 stock market crash and onset of the Great Depression, that “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” By the month’s end the stock market had crashed and crashed again, never to return to its prior highs in Fisher’s lifetime.
To be fair, Fisher wasn’t a Fed man. However, he was a dyed-in-the-wool central planner cut from the same cloth. Moreover, it is bloopers like these from the supposed experts like Bernanke and Fisher that make life so amiably pleasurable. Do you agree?
Hence, Mr. Dudley, words of congratulations are in order! Because on Monday you added what’ll most definitely be a sidesplitting quote to the annals of economic banter:
“I’m actually very confident that even though the expansion is relatively long in the tooth, we still have quite a long way to go. This is actually a pretty good place to be.” – William Dudley, June 19, 2017
Thank you, sir, for your shrewd insights. They’ll offer up countless laughs through the many dreary years ahead.
Too Little, Too Late
When it comes down to it, your excuses for raising rates are not about some unfounded fear of a crashing unemployment rate. Nor are they about controlling price inflation. These are mere cover for past mistakes.
The esteemed James Rickards, in an article titled The Fed’s Road Ahead, recently boiled present Fed policy down to its very core:
“Now we’re at a very delicate point, because the Fed missed the opportunity to raise rates five years ago. They’re trying to play catch-up, and yesterday’s [June 14] was the third rate hike in six months.
“Economic research shows that in a recession, they [the Fed] have to cut interest rates 300 basis points or more, or 3 percent, to lift the economy out of recession. I’m not saying we are in a recession now, although we’re probably close.
“But if a recession arrives a few months or even a year from now, how is the Fed going to cut rates 3 percent if they’re only at 1.25 percent?
“The answer is, they can’t.
“So the Fed’s desperately trying to raise interest rates up to 300 basis points, or 3 percent, before the next recession, so they have room to start cutting again. In other words, they are raising rates so they can cut them.”
Unfortunately, Mr. Dudley, the Fed miscalculated. Efforts to now raise rates will be too little, too late. To be clear, there ain’t a snowball’s chance in hell the Fed will get the federal funds rate up to 3 percent before the next recession. You likely won’t even get it up to 2 percent.
Nonetheless, you should stay the course. If you’re gonna raise rates, then raise rates. Don’t cut them. Raise them. Then raise them some more.
Crash stocks. Crash bonds. Crash real estate. Crush asset prices. Purge the debt and speculative excesses from financial markets.
Let marginal businesses go broke. Let too big to fail banks, fail. You can even consult with Dick “The Gorilla” Fuld, if needed. Then let nature do its work.
In essence, bring the paper money experiment to a close and shutter the doors of the Federal Reserve. No doubt, the economy and millions of people will suffer a painful multi-decade restructuring. But what choice is there, really?
Let’s face it. The Fed can’t hold the financial order together much longer anyway. Why pretend you can with utter nonsense like crashing unemployment? It’s insulting.
Your credibility’s shot. Better to get on with it now, before it’s forced upon you.
P.S. What’s up with Neel Kashkari? The man has gone rogue.
Non-resident MONTANA hunters foot the bill to keep the coffers full for the Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Department.
These great friends of mine paid big money for the opportunity to shoot Merriams in Montana. Can you tell my friends thought it was worth every penny? #GhostRanchGobblers #WhoCaresIt's$NotHealth #Can'tImagineMoreFun #BoomBaby #nonGMOFreeRangeAntibioticFreeTurkeyTastesBetter
Friday, June 23, 2017
Think risk control 100% of the time. You are doomed if you don't. The market mistress has a million ways to feed off of you. She will get you in every way possible and those you hadn't thought of.
Start with an open mind, think critically. Who is on the other side of the trade? What do they know and why? Follow a process, play for the big move. Every one wants to make the money, few want to do the work. Patience is key. Insanity, well, irrationality is rampant. Sit tight, better entry points are ahead.
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Wednesday, June 21, 2017
This is what I endured today.........
"Uh-ho. It seems there is high demand for this flight. The fare has been increased to $371."
I wish EDWARD BASTIAN would give me a call today. Come on Ed, ring me. 404-202-8173.
Friday, June 16, 2017
This is a picture taken when Robbie was 85 years old in 1975. We were elk hunting high in the Big Horn Mountains on the Crow Reservation and Robbie wanted fresh meat. He was a man among men and a good friend to my Dad who retired from a distinguished career with the Bureau of Indian Affairs, as a Criminal Investigator on the Crow Reservation. He was packing a .300 Winchester and wanted to bring along a fresh horse.
I saddled his fresh horse after lunch and we kept hunting. He was the first conservative Native American I had ever met besides my Dad. Robbie had so much vision to share and I am better for it today.
Here is another picture of him and his 4th wife, Dorothy Payne Yellowtail.
Thursday, June 15, 2017
Here is a GHOST RANCH youngster hiding in a freshly planted alfalfa field. He was difficult to spot hiding in the shade under a couple of weeds. If it's a buck fawn I hope we get to see what he looks like down the road. I had a notion to put a tag in his ear but am sure that would have violated some MT rule or regulation and more black helicopters would have been circling! For the record I didn't touch him or try to turn it into a "pet" deer! As is widely known, "pet" deer in Rosebud County seem to have bad endings!
Wednesday, June 07, 2017
The slime that keep the American crime rate high and going higher are introducing Germany to cultural enrichment. What a simple planet to understand.
Tuesday, June 06, 2017
It is June, 2017 in the United States.
I wonder how many young Americans, say between 18 and 25 years of age would have the intestinal fortitude to storm Normandy Beach today in defense of the Homeland?
Monday, June 05, 2017
Saturday, June 03, 2017
The choke-hold of DELTA and UNITED is unbelievable. The financial wind fall they "BAG" passengers is staggering. Montana suffers in so many ways.
I am flying AMERICAN into Billings this week, direct. About dam time for sure.
Friday, June 02, 2017
I told her this is what the massive bomber mule deer bucks I want to shoot in 2024 look like today!
The first week of June is generally when fawns in Montana enter the world. It's also a great week for coyotes, bobcats and eagles to feed their young.
The circle of life continues.
Think about that for a second. Only takes a nanosecond to see the outcome of that stupidity.
Thursday, June 01, 2017
Dinner exceeded expectations.