Honey, where in the devil is it?

FEAR in the Markets

I love the smell of panic these days.  If we can get a couple thousand points lopped off the DOW by November  I would love to put a few million to work.   The fraudsters at the FED probably have other ideas to keep the levitation in place until they can't.

Janet Yellen in a London speech

“Asset valuations are somewhat rich if you use some traditional metrics like price earnings ratios, but I wouldn’t try to comment on appropriate valuations, and those ratios ought to depend on long-term interest rates,” she said.

Responding to a question on financial system stability, Yellen said post-crisis regulations (and $2.5 trillion in excess reserves which just happen to be fungible and give the banks the impression that they are safe) had made financial institutions much “safer and sounder.”

"Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will."

Be honest. Tell the truth. Look in the mirror.  Don't lie. 

Could there be anyone less qualified for the job?

The Epoch Times asks why the FED hiked rates last week..........

The Epoch Times: Why did the Federal Reserve (Fed) hike rates last week, and what will its policy look like in the future?

James Rickards responds: They’re trying to prepare for the next recession. They’re not predicting a recession, they never do, but they know a recession will come sooner rather than later. This expansion is 96 months old. It’s one of the longest expansions in U.S. history. It’s also the weakest expansion in U.S. history. A lot of people say, “What expansion? Feels like a depression to me.”

I think it is a depression defined as depressed growth, but we’re not in a technical recession and haven’t been since June 2009. So it’s been an eight-year expansion at this point, but it won’t fare well, and the Fed knows that. When the U.S. economy goes into recession, you have to cut interest rates about 3 percent to get the United States out of that recession.

Well, how do you cut interest rates by 3 percent when you’re only at 1 percent? The answer is, you can’t. You’ve got to get them up to 3 percent to cut them back down, maybe to zero, to get out of the next recession. So that explains why the Fed is raising interest rates. That’s the fourth rate hike getting them up to 1 percent. They would like to keep going; they would like to get them up to 3, 3.5 percent by 2019.

My estimate is that they’re not going to get there. The recession will come first. In fact, they will probably cause the recession that they’re preparing to cure. So let’s just say we get interest rates to 1 percent and now you go into recession. We can cut them back down to zero. Well, now what do you do? You do a new round of quantitative easing (QE).

The problem is that the Fed’s balance sheet is so bloated at $4.5 trillion. How much more can you do—$5 trillion, $5.5 trillion, $6 trillion—before you cause a loss of confidence in the dollar?

There are a lot of smart people who think that there’s no limit on how much money you can print. “Just print money. What’s the problem?” I disagree. I think there’s an invisible boundary. The Fed won’t talk about it. No one knows what it is. But you don’t want to find out the hard way.

Gerald O'Driscoll, former Dallas FED VP

Lest we forget with Italian banks falling faster than Billy Clinton headed after an intern and now as common as John McCain trying to stir up some more MIC spending in a rathole in the Middle East, the words of the esteemed FED policy maker come to mind, "the FED is working through the ECB, bailing out European banks and, indirectly,  spendthrift European governments."  Through the swap agreements with the European Central Bank Driscoll pointed out, " (that) foster the moral hazards and distortions that government credit allocation entails."

No truer words were ever spoken.   The American taxpayer once again, used as a tool!

Yellen continues Bernanke's willful ignorance.  The folly will be exposed but it will be hard to stomach.



  

Savor Life, Cultivate Optimism

Are you breathing? Are you eating well? Did you sleep enough last night? Did you exercise? Did you avoid the people who put you down or stress you out? Did you come up with ideas? Did you laugh? Are you grateful for what you have? Can you surrender to the universe, to the angels that anchor you to your fears, just for a moment, and say, “Who today do you want me to help?”

The Dumbest Person in the World

How dumb?  Very dumb.

It’s the American who knocks what he’s got.

He’s got a country of unbounded beauty.

Almost unlimited beauty.  Almost unlimited natural resources.

A judicial system that is the envy of the world.

Food so plentiful overeating is a major problem

A press nobody can dominate.

A ballot box nobody can stuff.

Churches of your choice.

One hundred million jobs.

Freedom to go anywhere you want with the planes, trains and cars to get you there.

Unemployment insurance.  Public schools and plentiful scholarships.

Opportunity to become a millionaire.

Okay, complainer, what’s your second choice?

Please GO!

FED Listen UP!

For all FED employees here is the link!
http://economicprism.com/an-open-letter-to-william-dudley/
Dear Mr. Dudley,
Your recent remarks in the wake of last week’s FOMC statement were notably unhelpful.
In particular, your excuses for further rate hikes to prevent crashing unemployment and rising inflation stunk of rotten eggs.
Crashing Unemployment
Quite frankly, crashing unemployment is a construct that’s new to popular economic discourse, and a suspect one at that.
Years ago, prior to the nirvana of globalization, the potential for wage inflation stemming from full employment was the going concern. Now that the official unemployment rate’s just 4.3 percent, and wages are still down in the dumps, it appears the Fed has fabricated a new bugaboo to rally around. What to make of it?
For starters, the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy has successfully pushed the financial order completely out of the economy’s orbit. The once impossible is now commonplace.
For example, the absurdity of negative interest rates was unfathomable until very recently. But that was before years of central bank asset purchases made this a reality.
Perhaps, the imminent danger of crashing unemployment will give way to the impossibility of negative unemployment. Crazy things can happen, you know, especially considering the design limitations of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-death model.
Secondly, muddying up the Fed’s message with inane nonsense like crashing unemployment severely diminishes the Fed’s goal of providing transparent communication. In short, Fed communication has regressed from backassward to assbackward.
During the halcyon days of Alan Greenspan’s Goldilocks economy, for instance, the Fed regularly used jawboning as a tactic to manage inflation expectations. Through smiling teeth Greenspan would talk out of the side of his neck. He’d jawbone down inflation expectations while cutting rates.
Certainly, a lot has changed over the years. So, too, the Fed seems to have reversed its jawboning tactic. By all accounts, including your Monday remarks, the Fed is now jawboning up inflation expectations while raising rates.
Congratulations and Thank You!
History will prove this policy tactic to be a complete fiasco. But at least the Fed is consistent in one respect. The Fed has a consistent record of getting everything dead wrong.
If you recall, on January 10, 2008, a full month after the onset of the Great Recession, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke stated that “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” Granted, a recession is generally identified by two successive quarters of declining GDP; so, you don’t technically know you’re in a recession until after it is underway. But, come on, what good is a forecast if it can’t discern a recession when you’re in the midst of one?
Bernanke’s quote ranks up there in sheer idiocy with Irving Fisher’s public declaration in October 1929, on the eve of the 1929 stock market crash and onset of the Great Depression, that “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” By the month’s end the stock market had crashed and crashed again, never to return to its prior highs in Fisher’s lifetime.
To be fair, Fisher wasn’t a Fed man. However, he was a dyed-in-the-wool central planner cut from the same cloth. Moreover, it is bloopers like these from the supposed experts like Bernanke and Fisher that make life so amiably pleasurable. Do you agree?
Hence, Mr. Dudley, words of congratulations are in order! Because on Monday you added what’ll most definitely be a sidesplitting quote to the annals of economic banter:





“I’m actually very confident that even though the expansion is relatively long in the tooth, we still have quite a long way to go. This is actually a pretty good place to be.” – William Dudley, June 19, 2017
Thank you, sir, for your shrewd insights. They’ll offer up countless laughs through the many dreary years ahead.
Too Little, Too Late
When it comes down to it, your excuses for raising rates are not about some unfounded fear of a crashing unemployment rate. Nor are they about controlling price inflation. These are mere cover for past mistakes.
The esteemed James Rickards, in an article titled The Fed’s Road Ahead, recently boiled present Fed policy down to its very core:





“Now we’re at a very delicate point, because the Fed missed the opportunity to raise rates five years ago. They’re trying to play catch-up, and yesterday’s [June 14] was the third rate hike in six months.


“Economic research shows that in a recession, they [the Fed] have to cut interest rates 300 basis points or more, or 3 percent, to lift the economy out of recession. I’m not saying we are in a recession now, although we’re probably close.


“But if a recession arrives a few months or even a year from now, how is the Fed going to cut rates 3 percent if they’re only at 1.25 percent?


“The answer is, they can’t.


“So the Fed’s desperately trying to raise interest rates up to 300 basis points, or 3 percent, before the next recession, so they have room to start cutting again. In other words, they are raising rates so they can cut them.”
Unfortunately, Mr. Dudley, the Fed miscalculated. Efforts to now raise rates will be too little, too late. To be clear, there ain’t a snowball’s chance in hell the Fed will get the federal funds rate up to 3 percent before the next recession. You likely won’t even get it up to 2 percent.
Nonetheless, you should stay the course. If you’re gonna raise rates, then raise rates. Don’t cut them. Raise them. Then raise them some more.
Crash stocks. Crash bonds. Crash real estate. Crush asset prices. Purge the debt and speculative excesses from financial markets.
Let marginal businesses go broke. Let too big to fail banks, fail. You can even consult with Dick “The Gorilla” Fuld, if needed. Then let nature do its work.
In essence, bring the paper money experiment to a close and shutter the doors of the Federal Reserve. No doubt, the economy and millions of people will suffer a painful multi-decade restructuring. But what choice is there, really?
Let’s face it. The Fed can’t hold the financial order together much longer anyway. Why pretend you can with utter nonsense like crashing unemployment? It’s insulting.
Your credibility’s shot. Better to get on with it now, before it’s forced upon you.
P.S. What’s up with Neel Kashkari? The man has gone rogue.

Ghost Ranch Turkey 2017

Non-resident MONTANA hunters foot the bill to keep the coffers full for the Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks Department.

These great friends of mine paid  big money for the opportunity to shoot Merriams in Montana.  Can you tell my friends thought it was worth every penny?  #GhostRanchGobblers  #WhoCaresIt's$NotHealth  #Can'tImagineMoreFun   #BoomBaby    #nonGMOFreeRangeAntibioticFreeTurkeyTastesBetter

The Goldman Sachs FED Recession Causation

"The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter."

Guardian Life Insurance Company of America

Great job.  Excellent customer service follow-up!   Unique to have that quality of follow-up.

Winners.  Every person I talked to, knew their stuff.

Guardian Life.  Thank you.

FED LOVE Bernie Sanders and BERNANKE going at it..........

Always great to go back and see the love.......

The insanity of the FED skewering the divide between rich and poor..........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ahMsz6QMB8

Want more shit to sell at a yard sale? Tired of clutter, need more and more and more?

We are unhappy because we are insatiable.  After working hard to get what we want, we lose interest in the object of our desire.  Rather than feeling satisfied, we feel bored and in response to this boredom we go on to form new, grander, desires.

The easiest way to gain happiness is to want the things you already have.

A technique I use is NEGATIVE VISUALIZATION.  Here are the benefits before I tell you how it works.

It allows you to better appreciate what you have.

It allows you to not cling to the present and your current situation.

It allows you to avoid hedonic adaption.

You can put this into practice every day by imagining your life without something you hold dear.  Whether it is career, money or family.

The goal is not to cause you grief but instead to value what you already have and realize just how much it means to you.

This will force you to appreciate more what you already possess and not get stuck in the hedonic cycle or treadmill of wanting and acquiring more. 

Listen up.........

Don't listen to other traders and stay off of ideas on TWITTER.  Fast way to the poor house.
Think risk control 100% of the time.  You are doomed if you don't.  The market mistress has a million ways to feed off of you.  She will get you in every way possible and those you hadn't thought of.
Start with an open mind, think critically.  Who is on the other side of the trade?  What do they know and why?  Follow a process,  play for the big move.  Every one wants to make the money, few want to do the work.  Patience is key.  Insanity, well, irrationality is rampant.  Sit tight, better entry points are ahead.

Smart v. Right

For you on twitter asking questions remember this.

Trade to make money, not to be right.  Great traders are not interested in appearing smart. As the saying goes, there no bonus check at the end of the year for being smart. 

Ellen Weintraub

How about "all hands on deck" to investigate how the DNC decided long before the primary started that Bernie was never going to win? It was predetermined by the Democratic National Committee that Hillary would win.

How does that not shake the faith of the American Democratic voter?

Bubble Up

“Are you kidding? Are you kidding? No one knows what you’re doing.” 

 – Economist John Taylor in response to William Dudley’s (President Federal Reserve Bank of New York)  comment that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been very clear in their discussions about monetary policy.

MIC at work against the American taxpayer

The Pentagon wasted millions of taxpayer dollars buying the Afghan army a woodland camouflage uniform that was apparently chosen on a whim and may have made soldiers easier to spot, a U.S. government watchdog said Wednesday. The office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) said the Pentagon may have spent as much as $28 million more than necessary when it decided in 2007 to purchase the dark-green "forest" camouflage uniforms, even though forests cover only about 2 percent of the country, SIGAR noted. Still, Afghanistan's then defense minister liked the pattern. And although the proprietary design came at a premium price, the report says officials paid without conducting any formal testing or evaluation.

FED Speak.

“Are you kidding? Are you kidding? No one knows what you’re doing.” 

 – Economist John Taylor in response to William Dudley’s (President Federal Reserve Bank of New York)  comment that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been very clear in their discussions about monetary policy.

DELTA AIRLINES BAIT n SWITCH EXPERTS!

This is what is wrong with these fraudsters running DELTA AIRLINES.  When you click the "BUY TICKET NOW" button the algorithm kicks in and hits you with more fees;  knowing everything about you, buying habits, income, business travel routes, etc.......

This is what I endured today.........

"Uh-ho.  It seems there is high demand for this flight.  The fare has been increased to $371."

I wish EDWARD BASTIAN would give me a call today.  Come on Ed, ring me.  404-202-8173.

Aaron Williams, Bull Rider talking POSITIVE!!!

“It’s not if you’re going to get hurt riding bulls,” said Williams, who was bucked. “It’s when and how bad. So we all kind of know it’s going to happen and it can happen. We just don’t want it to. If you let it bother you, it’s going to bother you, then it’s going to bother you, but it’s one of those deals where you’ve got to accept it and just go on with it.”

Williams knows something about wrecks himself. In 2014, he was stomped by a bull and left with a shattered femur.

“I don’t recall my own injuries,” Williams said. “I put stuff like that out of my head.”

It’s a common, and necessary, mantra among competitors at the CNFR. As negative as Gray’s ride Thursday was, there’s only one mindset that works in rodeo.

“You’ve just got to think positive,” said Panhandle State’s Cody Ballard, who also knows Gray from their time rodeoing in Australia. “I think rodeoing is 90, 95 percent the mind. You’ve just got to stay positive.”

“You can’t go about anything in this sport half-heartedly,” Williams added. “And being negative definitely does not make you go at something and give it your all. If you’re not positive, then you might as well not tie your hand onto your bull or get on your horse that night. Because it’s not going to go in your favor.

“Animals feed off that stuff. … It’s a different deal. You have to stay positive. You have to put good things out there into the world to get big things back.”

His positive mindset extends to Gray, whose condition has improved, but is still in critical condition at Wyoming Medical Center, where he has undergone multiple surgeries.

“We’re cowboys,” Williams said. “We don’t quit. So he ain’t gonna. He’ll be all right.”

Robert "Robbie" Summers Yellowtail and Dean Parisian

This is a picture taken when Robbie was 75 years old in 1975.   We were elk hunting high in the Big Horn Mountains on the Crow Reservation and Robbie wanted fresh meat.  He was a man among men and a good friend to my Dad who retired from a distinguished career with the Bureau of Indian Affairs, as a Criminal Investigator on the Crow Reservation.  He was packing a .300 Winchester and wanted to bring along a fresh horse.

I saddled his fresh horse after lunch and we kept hunting.  He was the first conservative Native American I had ever met besides my Dad.  Robbie had so much vision to share and I am better for it today.

Yellowtail was born in Lodge Grass, Montana in 1889. Throughout his life, Yellowtail went by three Crow names. He was referred to as Bíawakshish, or "Summer", then Shoopáaheesh, or "Four War Deeds", and finally Axíchish, or "The Wet", which was shared with another war chief who was in the same clan as Yellowtail. Separated from his mother at the age of 4 years old, Yellowtail was culturally assimilated into a reservation boarding school. When he was 13 years old, he went to the Sherman Institute, in Riverside, California, graduating in 1907. He then attended the Extension Law School in Los Angeles, transferring to the University of Chicago Law School, where he gained his Juris Doctor degree.

Here is another picture of him and his 4th wife, Dorothy Payne Yellowtail.

  

Happy Fathers Day AMERICA!!!!

When you think about your Father this weekend and the dreams he had for you years ago, he probably wasn't in fear of $20 trillion of debt, a ponzi Social Security system, open borders, decaying cities, FED printing presses printing trillions to bail out the reckless, irresponsible, racketeering, price fixing, money laundering, uber leveraged, derivative infected, systemically fraudulent TBTF bankers sucking the blood out of the economy for the next 25 years. 

 .........Happy Fathers Day to all you guys who are Fathers to your children and not just sires......

Imagine the hundreds of thousands of young Americans who have never had their real FATHER take them to a ball game, play catch, go to the beach, go to the fair, go on vacation, meet their teachers, tuck them in, give them a big hug, take them to the Doctor, read them a book, answer their questions, kiss their Mom,  eat at McDonalds,  watch football games together, help them open a bank account, watch them play sports,  buy their medicine,  take prom pictures, watch a movie,  go to a park and a million other things that DADS do with their prized sons and daughters.

Fatherhood is not siring boys and girls.  

Like I have said before, the total abdication of personal responsibility in being a FATHER to the hundreds of thousands, actually millions of young Americans is near criminal.

And America wonders why things are going to hell.

Look in the mirror America.

And to the step-dads, the uncles, the grandparents who try  to replace the role of the father I will pray for you on Sunday.  You have a herculean task.

The liberal swine in D.C. have the incentives wrong.  They "buy" votes with the EBT and SNAP.

They just can't fulfill the role of FATHER.

God bless the memory of my Father, Douglas E. Parisian.

Megyn Kelly, bona fide LIAR? Yes or No?

Boys and girls across America, you make the call.   Listen to the lies.........

Megyn Kelly, Liar, Yes or NO?

Montana GHOST RANCH whitetail in 2023 ..........

Here is a GHOST RANCH youngster hiding in a freshly planted alfalfa field.  He was difficult to spot hiding in the shade under a couple of weeds.  If it's a buck fawn I hope we get to see what he looks like down the road.  I had a notion to put a tag in his ear but am sure that would have violated some MT rule or regulation and more black helicopters would have been circling!   For the record I didn't touch him or try to turn it into a "pet" deer!  As is widely known, "pet" deer in Rosebud County seem to have bad endings!    

Happy Fathers Day DAD

He lived nearly 88.5 years.   I am thankful he was here that long.   Thank you for everything.

Facts, just the facts please.............

More than 1,600 knife-related crimes were reported in Germany during just the first five months of 2017 - an average of 300 such crimes each month, or ten a day. Not only are knife-related crimes surging, but the perpetrators and victims of such crimes are increasingly younger and increasingly female.

The slime that keep the American crime rate high and going higher are introducing Germany to cultural enrichment.   What a simple planet to understand.

Normandy Beach, Question for America

I just walked back to the office here in Dallas, Texas.   Took a slow stroll from getting a haircut to look around at the urban decay and rot walking the streets.

It is June,  2017 in the United States.

I wonder how many young Americans, say between 18 and 25 years of age would have the intestinal fortitude to storm Normandy Beach today in defense of the Homeland?

Moar, More, Moore, Print Baby Print!

NEEDED: 1 way tickets

Any chance of getting theses  BUBBLEHEADS to Qatar?  The parasite class with their printing presses will print any amount to preserve their lifestyle.   America and it's citizen savers be damned.

Kicking off the summer..........

MONTANA FLIGHTS. Montana low cost flights.

Kelly McCandless, listen up!  Big Sky Economic Development, Visit Southeast Montana and the Montana Department of Commerce should be working 24 hours a day to get some low-cost flights into Montana and I'm not talking Cape Air!

The choke-hold of DELTA and UNITED is unbelievable.    The financial wind fall they "BAG" passengers is staggering.  Montana suffers in so many ways. 

I am flying AMERICAN into Billings this week, direct.    About dam time for sure.

Montana Beauties!

My friend Sharon Borla from Forsyth, Montana snapped a dandy this morning!

I told her this is what the massive bomber mule deer bucks I want to shoot in 2024 look like today!

The first week of June is  generally when fawns in Montana enter the world.   It's also a great week for coyotes, bobcats and eagles to feed their young.

The circle of life continues.

WalMart versus Amazon

One of the funnier things I have read today is the new policy at WalMart asking employees to deliver packages to WalMart online customers residences/work on their way home.

Think about that for a second.   Only takes a nanosecond to see the outcome of that stupidity.

Ashford Castle Estate, Cong, Co. Mayo, F31 CA48, Ireland

Overlooking Lough Corrib lake, on 350 acres of parkland, this hotel occupies a 13th-century castle.

Dinner exceeded expectations.