Parisian Family Office, CEO. Started Wall Street, '82. Drexel Burnham alum. Founded Chippewa Partners, Native American Advisors, '95. Chippewa, raised on reservations. Conservative. NYSE/FINRA arb. Pureblood. Trading WON/CANSLIM methodology from PAMELOT, TN farm, GHOST RANCH, MT, on the Yellowstone River, or CASA TULE', their winter camp in Los Cabos, Mexico. Will always be, a relentless optimist with radical gratitude.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
This makes sense or does it?
With the domestic (and global) economy in shambles, and not foundering only due to $4+ trillion in fiscal and monetary stimuli and near-double digit unemployment, there is, however, a silver lining - Reuters reports 2010 may be the second highest bonus payout season on Wall Street ever!!!
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Your debt.......mine and yours.......OURS!
With little fanfare, the November budget deficit of $150.4 billion was reported, which happened to be the worst fiscal November in the history of the US, and just out of the top 10 of worst deficit months ever, including the traditionally weak seasonal months of December, April and September (indicatively, the worst deficit month was the February 2010 $221 billion). The deficit was a major surprise to all those who had expected a pick up in income tax revenues. And as the charts below demonstrate, while there was indeed a modest pick up in tax collections, it was nowhere near enough to offset the surge in government outlays (even with interest payments still at near record low levels). What was also not broadly appreciated is that the cumulative debt issuance over deficit funding has hit a new all time high of $1,735 billion since our October 2006 starting point (4 fiscal years ago). And what is a bigger concern, is that the debt issuance continues to remain at almost exactly 50% over the deficit. Additionally we know that courtesy of Obama's latest stimulus for the wealthy (and everyone else) the latest projection for the 2011 budget deficit will hit $1.5 trillion (after it was just $1.1 trillion a few months prior). What this means is that should the US Treasury continue to issue 50% more debt than total deficit needs, by the end of fiscal 2011, the US will have issued another roughly $2.25 trillion in net debt. Granted this is a rule of thumb. But what it means is that the $900 billion in notional (not market) value of bonds to be bought back by the Fed through June will be woefully insufficient, and that as a result we expect that Ben Bernanke will be forced to monetize another $1.2 trillion in debt to continue with his course of monetizing every dollar of deficit spending, as he has been doing since the advent of QE2. It also means that unless something dramatically changes, through October 31, 2011, total US debt will be $15.9 trillion, up from the $13.9 trillion as of the end of last month, and will mean that the debt ceiling will have to be raised not only once, but likely twice in the next 12 months. We are now truly a banana republic you can believe in.
A Huckabee ZINGER...........
"If we want to keep our nation's secrets 'SECRET' store them where President Obama stores his college transcripts and birth certificate."
Sounds like Governor Huckabee might also mention that they’re safely stored with Bush’s transcripts and the paper trail of his Alabama AWOL.
Sounds like Governor Huckabee might also mention that they’re safely stored with Bush’s transcripts and the paper trail of his Alabama AWOL.
Sunday, December 05, 2010
Wednesday, December 01, 2010
Am I the only American ......
who is royally upset about the American Taxpayer bailing out European banks? God Almighty help us.
Your Government again withholding information.........
At noon today, the Fed will provide an information dump identifying recipients of $3.3 trillion in emergency aid which it dispensed as per its interpretation of its mandate following the Lehman collapse. From Bloomberg: "The data will probably show the magnitude of central bank support to companies including Bank of America Corp. and General Electric Co. after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. spurred a surge in private borrowing costs. Lawmakers demanded disclosure after the Fed approved aid dwarfing the federal government’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program." Not all data will be available, however: all important discount window information will not be included as part of this package: "Congress excluded one Fed program from disclosure, the discount window, which is the subject of a 2008 lawsuit filed by Bloomberg LP, parent of Bloomberg News, against the central bank. A group of banks is appealing to the Supreme Court over lower-court decisions ordering the Fed to identify loan recipients. The program peaked at $110.7 billion in October 2008." Since today’s information relates to aid from Dec. 1, 2007, through July 21, 2010, there will be enough information to satisfy the most detail-oriented forensic reverse engineers.
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