Last week's number one soundbite on CNBC was the increase from the all time bottom in new home sales. What they did not focus on was the reason for this. Here it is, courtesy of David Rosenberg.
With a month to go before the homebuyer tax credit expires in the U.S., surprise, surprise, we see a ripping 27% MoM surge in new home sales, to a 411k annual unit rate (steepest increase since April 1963). However, even with that marvelous March result, in Q1, new home sales still managed to slide at a 14% annual rate. Nonetheless, homebuilding stocks and copper prices took off and bonds lost ground; however, it would be so much more impressive if it wasn’t so transitory.
As was the case last fall — ahead of what we all thought was the end of the first-time homebuyer subsidy, not to mention the same impact cash-for-clunkers exerted on auto sales late last year — what we have is a brief surge in activity to be followed by a prolonged lull. To put this into perspective, keep in mind that the March figure followed four months of deep disappointment. In fact, the level of new home sales is basically the same as the consensus believed we would be at by now when you look at the monthly growth estimates heading into the data releases since last December.
The fact of the matter is that even with the tremendous amount of policy stimulus, home sales are still down around 70% from their pre-recession highs. The fact is that it is still taking a record median 14.4 months for homebuilders to locate a buyer upon completion of the unit. In addition, the fact that median home prices fell 3.4% last month (average prices slid 11% in the second sharpest monthly decline in the 35-year history of the data series) is testament to the view that demand is still experiencing trouble keeping up with the available supply.
None of this is of course relevant, as the question du jour is whether you bought your 4th washer/dryer combo in the past week. More importantly, have you rented a CAT excavator to level your neighbor's empty but unforeclosed
Parisian Family Office, CEO. Started Wall Street, '82. Drexel Burnham alum. Founded Chippewa Partners, Native American Advisors, '95. Chippewa, raised on reservations. Conservative. NYSE/FINRA arb. Pureblood. Trading WON/CANSLIM methodology from PAMELOT, TN farm, GHOST RANCH, MT, on the Yellowstone River, or CASA TULE', their winter camp in Los Cabos, Mexico. Will always be, a relentless optimist with radical gratitude.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Friday, April 23, 2010
How is your portfolio doing?
% Loss % Gain needed to get back to even
-10 11
-15 18
-20 25
-25 33
-30 43
-35 54
-40 67
-45 82
-50 100
-55 122
-60 150
-65 186
-70 233
-75 300
-80 400
-85 567
-90 900
-95 1900
-10 11
-15 18
-20 25
-25 33
-30 43
-35 54
-40 67
-45 82
-50 100
-55 122
-60 150
-65 186
-70 233
-75 300
-80 400
-85 567
-90 900
-95 1900
SEC pornsters....protecting American market integrity
Dozens of Securities and Exchange Commission staffers used government computers to access and download explicit images and many of the incidents have occurred since the global financial meltdown began, according to a new watchdog investigation.
The SEC inspector general conducted 33 probes of employees, 31 of which occurred in the last two and a half years, according to a summary of the cases requested by Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) that first surfaced Thursday evening.
Several of employees held senior positions, earning between $99,300 and $222,418 per year, the summary said. Three of the incidents occurred this year, ten in 2009, 16 in 2008, two in 2007 and one each in 2006 and 2005.
In one instance, a regional office staff account admitted viewing pornography on his office computer and on his SEC-issued laptop while on official government travel. Another staff account received nearly 1,800 access denials for pornography Web sites in a two-week period and had more than 600 images saved on her laptop’s hard drive, the report said.
A senior attorney at SEC headquarters in Washington admitted he sometimes spent as much as eight hours viewing pornography from his office computer, according to the report. The attorney’s computer ran out of space for the downloaded images, so he started storing them on CDs and DVDs that he stored in his office.
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), ranking Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said it was “nothing short of disturbing that high-ranking officials within the SEC were spending more time looking at pornography than taking action to help stave off the events that brought our nation's economy to the brink of collapse."
"This stunning report should make everyone question the wisdom of moving forward with plans to give regulators like the SEC even more widespread authority," Issa said in a subtle jab at ongoing financial reform efforts.
Grassley’s decision to leak the summary to reporters comes as SEC investigators have filed a fraud case against Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs. A Grassley spokeswoman did not immediately respond to questions about the timing or motives behind the release.
The behavior exposed in the watchdog report violates government ethics rules, but illegal pornography access by federal workers is nothing new:
• A senior executive at the National Science Foundation spent at least 331 days looking at pornography on his government computer and chatting online with nude or partially clad women without being detected. The problems reportedly were so pervasive they diverted the agency's watchdog from its main mission.
• National Park Service employee John A. Latschar, who oversaw the Gettysburg National Military Park, used his office computer over a two-year period to search for and view more than 3,400 sexually explicit images. He was later reassigned to an unspecified desk job.
• Alex Kozinski, chief judge of the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, established a Web site that featured sexually explicit photos and video. He later acknowledged posting images, defended the content as "funny" (no, really) and said he thought the site was for his private storage. All of this while he was presiding over an obscenity trial. He later took the site down.
The SEC inspector general conducted 33 probes of employees, 31 of which occurred in the last two and a half years, according to a summary of the cases requested by Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) that first surfaced Thursday evening.
Several of employees held senior positions, earning between $99,300 and $222,418 per year, the summary said. Three of the incidents occurred this year, ten in 2009, 16 in 2008, two in 2007 and one each in 2006 and 2005.
In one instance, a regional office staff account admitted viewing pornography on his office computer and on his SEC-issued laptop while on official government travel. Another staff account received nearly 1,800 access denials for pornography Web sites in a two-week period and had more than 600 images saved on her laptop’s hard drive, the report said.
A senior attorney at SEC headquarters in Washington admitted he sometimes spent as much as eight hours viewing pornography from his office computer, according to the report. The attorney’s computer ran out of space for the downloaded images, so he started storing them on CDs and DVDs that he stored in his office.
Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), ranking Republican on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said it was “nothing short of disturbing that high-ranking officials within the SEC were spending more time looking at pornography than taking action to help stave off the events that brought our nation's economy to the brink of collapse."
"This stunning report should make everyone question the wisdom of moving forward with plans to give regulators like the SEC even more widespread authority," Issa said in a subtle jab at ongoing financial reform efforts.
Grassley’s decision to leak the summary to reporters comes as SEC investigators have filed a fraud case against Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs. A Grassley spokeswoman did not immediately respond to questions about the timing or motives behind the release.
The behavior exposed in the watchdog report violates government ethics rules, but illegal pornography access by federal workers is nothing new:
• A senior executive at the National Science Foundation spent at least 331 days looking at pornography on his government computer and chatting online with nude or partially clad women without being detected. The problems reportedly were so pervasive they diverted the agency's watchdog from its main mission.
• National Park Service employee John A. Latschar, who oversaw the Gettysburg National Military Park, used his office computer over a two-year period to search for and view more than 3,400 sexually explicit images. He was later reassigned to an unspecified desk job.
• Alex Kozinski, chief judge of the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, established a Web site that featured sexually explicit photos and video. He later acknowledged posting images, defended the content as "funny" (no, really) and said he thought the site was for his private storage. All of this while he was presiding over an obscenity trial. He later took the site down.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Obama on Wall Street
Just more of the same. Campaign like speech. Nothing gets done.
If you wanted America being run by a community activist from Illinois you got your man. The puppet show continues.
If you wanted America being run by a community activist from Illinois you got your man. The puppet show continues.
Jim Bianco
I first met Jim Bianco a few years here in Atlanta. He was a guest at the monthly Atlanta Society of Financial Analysts of which I was a member for many years. Jim Biance calls it like he sees it. Smart guy, no bullshit. No sugarcoat, no fluff.
He was one of 3 speakers I had an opportunity to meet at ASFA meetings who I still follow closely. In all the time I was a member of the ASFA I never met another member of the Atlanta Society who was actively trading their own personal money or had ever made any serious money in the market. Do as I say, not as I do seemed to be the mantra there. Eating their own cooking wasn't part of the equation. Ugly.
Anyway, the Bianco commentary is too good not to share. It's no bullshit from the get-go.
Jim Bianco President of Bianco Research in Chicago thinks this might be the eye of the storm rather than the dawn of a new day. "My fear is, history shows, we might have a second leg to the financial crisis in [the form of] a sovereign debt crisis."
The crisis is of course already visible in Greece where yields on their 10-year government bonds just hit a record high as Europe works out a bailout package for the heavily indebted nation. Meanwhile, in Portugal - another one of Europe's so-called PIIGS - bond yields are also spiking, fueling suspicion the debt crisis may spread.
With huge federal deficits, this is something the U.S. also needs to worry about. "I'm not suggesting the U.S. is on the verge of defaulting," Bianco says, but the market is already signaling it's hesitation to lend to the government. Two-year notes sold by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yielded less than U.S. Treasuries of similar maturity; the same is true of paper issued by Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson and Lowe's, Blooomberg reports.
As growing budget crises in states and municipalities from California to New York come to a head, Bianco fears it will be too much for the Treasury to bear. "If one of these municipalities has to borrow from [the federal government] they're all going to have to borrow from them, pretty much on the same day," he speculates.
If that happens, Bianco is confident you can bet on "very high, punishingly high interest rates for the economy." And that storm may cause even more damage than the first.
He was one of 3 speakers I had an opportunity to meet at ASFA meetings who I still follow closely. In all the time I was a member of the ASFA I never met another member of the Atlanta Society who was actively trading their own personal money or had ever made any serious money in the market. Do as I say, not as I do seemed to be the mantra there. Eating their own cooking wasn't part of the equation. Ugly.
Anyway, the Bianco commentary is too good not to share. It's no bullshit from the get-go.
Jim Bianco President of Bianco Research in Chicago thinks this might be the eye of the storm rather than the dawn of a new day. "My fear is, history shows, we might have a second leg to the financial crisis in [the form of] a sovereign debt crisis."
The crisis is of course already visible in Greece where yields on their 10-year government bonds just hit a record high as Europe works out a bailout package for the heavily indebted nation. Meanwhile, in Portugal - another one of Europe's so-called PIIGS - bond yields are also spiking, fueling suspicion the debt crisis may spread.
With huge federal deficits, this is something the U.S. also needs to worry about. "I'm not suggesting the U.S. is on the verge of defaulting," Bianco says, but the market is already signaling it's hesitation to lend to the government. Two-year notes sold by Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yielded less than U.S. Treasuries of similar maturity; the same is true of paper issued by Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson and Lowe's, Blooomberg reports.
As growing budget crises in states and municipalities from California to New York come to a head, Bianco fears it will be too much for the Treasury to bear. "If one of these municipalities has to borrow from [the federal government] they're all going to have to borrow from them, pretty much on the same day," he speculates.
If that happens, Bianco is confident you can bet on "very high, punishingly high interest rates for the economy." And that storm may cause even more damage than the first.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Goodwin Proctor LLP and New America.........
Always nice to read the New America High Income Fund Inc. Annual Report.
It's the same old story in Boston.
No doubt Robert Pozen is still shaking his head at the early shenanigans of this funds initial fearless leader. Almost reminds me of "Girls Gone Wild" at Fidelity Investments!!!
It's the same old story in Boston.
No doubt Robert Pozen is still shaking his head at the early shenanigans of this funds initial fearless leader. Almost reminds me of "Girls Gone Wild" at Fidelity Investments!!!
Monday, April 19, 2010
Sic 'em Dylan.....go boy go............
"Mr. President, please show the American people the AIG emails. In the wake of the disclosures associated with Friday's government fraud accusations against Goldman, Sachs & Co., one of our nation's wealthiest, largest and most politically well-connected banks, it is inexcusable the U.S. government still refuses to release the thousands of emails that exist between AIG and Goldman Sachs. Unlike the Icelandic volcano, this was no natural disaster. Trillions of dollars have been defrauded from the U.S. taxpayer by a banking scam run by the top 1% of our country." - Dylan Ratigan
Friday, April 16, 2010
Harry Truman...........
Harry Truman was a different kind of President. He probably made as many, or more important decisions regarding our nation's history as any of the other 42 Presidents preceding him. However, a measure of his greatness may rest on what he did after he left the White House.
The only asset he had when he died was the house he lived in, which was in Independence Missouri . His wife had inherited the house from her mother and father and other than their years in the White House, they lived their entire lives there.
When he retired from office in 1952, his income was a U.S. Army pension reported to have been $13,507.72 a year. Congress, noting that he was paying for his stamps and personally licking them, granted him an 'allowance' and, later, a retroactive pension of $25,000 per year.
After President Eisenhower was inaugurated, Harry and Bess drove home to Missouri by themselves. There was no Secret Service following them.
When offered corporate positions at large salaries, he declined, stating, "You don 't want me. You want the office of the President, and that doesn't belong to me. It belongs to the American people and it's not for sale.."
Even later, on May 6, 1971, when Congress was preparing to award him the Medal of Honor on his 87th birthday, he refused to accept it, writing, "I don 't consider that I have done anything which should be the reason for any award, Congressional or otherwise."
As president he paid for all of his own travel expenses and food.
Modern politicians have found a new level of success in cashing in on the Presidency, resulting in untold wealth. Today, many in Congress also have found a way to become quite wealthy while enjoying the fruits of their offices. Political offices are now for sale. (sic. Illinois )
Good old Harry Truman was correct when he observed, "My choices in life were either to be a piano player in a whore house or a politician. And to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference!
I say dig him up and clone him!!
The only asset he had when he died was the house he lived in, which was in Independence Missouri . His wife had inherited the house from her mother and father and other than their years in the White House, they lived their entire lives there.
When he retired from office in 1952, his income was a U.S. Army pension reported to have been $13,507.72 a year. Congress, noting that he was paying for his stamps and personally licking them, granted him an 'allowance' and, later, a retroactive pension of $25,000 per year.
After President Eisenhower was inaugurated, Harry and Bess drove home to Missouri by themselves. There was no Secret Service following them.
When offered corporate positions at large salaries, he declined, stating, "You don 't want me. You want the office of the President, and that doesn't belong to me. It belongs to the American people and it's not for sale.."
Even later, on May 6, 1971, when Congress was preparing to award him the Medal of Honor on his 87th birthday, he refused to accept it, writing, "I don 't consider that I have done anything which should be the reason for any award, Congressional or otherwise."
As president he paid for all of his own travel expenses and food.
Modern politicians have found a new level of success in cashing in on the Presidency, resulting in untold wealth. Today, many in Congress also have found a way to become quite wealthy while enjoying the fruits of their offices. Political offices are now for sale. (sic. Illinois )
Good old Harry Truman was correct when he observed, "My choices in life were either to be a piano player in a whore house or a politician. And to tell the truth, there's hardly any difference!
I say dig him up and clone him!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)