Manages Parisian Family Office. Began Wall Street, 82. Founded investment firm, Native American Advisors. Member, White Earth Chippewa Tribe. Was NYSE/FINRA arb. Conservative. Raised on Native reservations. Pureblood, clot-shot free. In a world elevated on a tech-driven dopamine binge, he trades from Ghost Ranch on the Yellowstone River in MT, his TN farm, Pamelot or CASA TULE', his winter camp in Los Cabos, Mexico. Always been, and will always be, an optimist.

Thursday, March 21, 2024

It's coming. The sky is falling. "R" is here!

The dreaded "R" word!  Recession!    I will say it again, you read it here first, the recession will start the day after Trump takes office.   The liberal media loons will go crazy blaming the Trump presidency on policy causing a recession.

Today, the stock market goes on its merry way.  Again, another day of ATH's.

All.  Time.  Highs.    Buy RSP or SPY, preferably a combination of the two names, and just do nothing.    Just. Do. Nothing.  Just sit.

Here is a precursor of what is happening due to Bidenomics.  America's penchant for eating out is drying up.   

I took this off of ZeroHedge today.

"Darden Restaurants, a top full-service US restaurant group with 1,914 locations across 50 states under its eight brands—Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar's, Yard House, Ruth's Chris, The Capital Grille, Seasons 52, Bahama Breeze, and Eddie V's—warned on Thursday that lower-income customers are pulling back on spending. 

"Transactions from incomes below $75,000 were much lower than last year, and at every brand, transactions fell from incomes below $50,000. Similar to Q2, this shift was most pronounced in our Fine Dining segment," Chief Executive Officer Rick Cardenas told investors on an earnings call.

A pinched low- and middle-income consumer comes as no surprise given elevated credit-card balances and rising delinquencies, as well as depleted personal savings. Furthermore, negative real wage growth has been a disaster for the working poor in the era of failed Bidenomics."  

It still amazes me that most people involved in the stock market think that day trading or buying and selling is the way to make money.   The big money is doing the work in bad times and doing what I call, "winnowing" down the names I want to own.  As a cowboy, there is only so much room at the water trough.  You want to keep your best livestock well-fed and watered.  You want to own the best horses and give them plenty to drink.  If lucky, they will produce for you year after year.  I was fortunately very ready when the market began to roll back in November.  There was a silver lining to having had COVID back then and being in front of the computer day and night.  I didn't have the strength to be hunting, fishing, or trapping full-time last fall.  So, I was ready.  The big money is made by sitting.  I wish I knew 40 years ago what I know now.  A big shout-out to the million charts, scans, and screens I have been able to learn from via the William O'Neil database, now called MarketSurge, formerly called MarketSmith, and to the blue and green Daily Graphs books I had Federal Expressed overnight to review each and every weekend.  It was an expensive investment at the time, but now it's an investment I couldn't operate without.  Human emotions haven't changed in 10,000 years.  Fear and greed are in ultimate control of stock prices.  I am forever grateful.  

They changed my life.     



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