Friday, March 30, 2012

Mega Lottery and Millions!

I have managed money professionally for over 30 years. I have a substantial net worth and consider myself a serious student of prudent money management and investment behavior. I am in the markets every day, long or short.

Since the inception of my firm in 1995, we have managed money for lottery winners and some very highly compensated Native American tribes and individuals, some individuals making over $100,000 per month. It is true, nearly all lottery winners are broke after 5 years. Broke. They are in the same financial position they were in prior to winning, usually with larger financial responsibilities they have no way of paying. Lotteries essentially target and encourage lower-income individuals into a cycle that directly prevents them from improving their financial status and leverages their desire to escape poverty. Yes, that’s a bit harsh, and yes, people have the right to make their own decisions. Even bad ones… Also, many people tend to significantly overestimate the odds of winning because we tend to assess the likelihood of an event occurring based on how frequently we hear about it happening. The lottery is nothing but society's perfectly efficient way of, to use a term from the vernacular, keeping the poor man down.

It has been enjoyable to listen to this Mega Millions lottery talk. Althought it would be very difficult to lose the entire amount by making poor choices, it would not be impossible.

You see, savings and retirement are not institutions. They are matters of personal responsibility. They are an attitude - not some external organization or person to blame. Generally speaking, don't blame anyone but yourself for your financial problems. You're just labeling yourself a victim. Most of the "rich" deserve to be rich because they earned it. Aspire to be rich, don't denigrate them. That is just a class envy attitude. Besides, it is the rich who create wealth. Has anyone ever heard of a poor person giving anyone a job? Is it the poor who give to the Salvation Army and the Red Cross? Do the poor support the churches? The so called rich, small business people, etc., are the ones who put people to work.

Try to act like the rich - be frugal, save, delay material gratification, save, take personal responsibility for yourself, save, delay buying iPads, iPods, Blackberries, big screen TV's, video games, extraneous cell phone charges, and did I mention, save.

The key word in retirement planning is not retirement. It is planning as in, plan to save to have your house paid for, plan to save to have your car paid off, pay off the credit cards. Have enough saved to generate a steady income to add to the biggest ponzi scheme in existence, Social Security. Start now. Do not wait.

In my experience, here are some "poor" spending habits to drop, the sooner the better.

1.Smoking
2.Drinking
3.Gambling
4.Driving a gas hog
5.High end cell phone
6.High end cell phone plan
7.Extended cable
8.Premium channels
9.Changing oil at 3000 miles(7.5 to 10k is fine)
10.Washing clothes in hot water. Cold is better anyway
11.Going out to eat
12.Going out to movies
13.Going out to clubs
14.Speeding
15.Buying the latest gadgets
16.Pets,plants and anything that cost to keep up,feed ,etc.
17.Gym membership
18.Country club membership
19.Coffee of the month club.
These are things that worked for me (they are not for everyone)so I had more money to take trips, hunting trips,etc.

I know some will come back with stupid remarks like “quit breathing”, ”quit living”, etc. That's fine. For those there is little hope until it gets late in life.

Learn to really enjoy life. Go for a hike. Take in the arts. There is alot of "free" in life, just go find it.

Sure, you can listen to CNBC and Obama drone on about the recovery, about the wealth effect, about trickle-down economics, about why adding $150 billion in debt per month is perfectly acceptable, and about a brighter future for America and the world. If you win the lottery I hope you will diversify your winnings across currencies as well as into physical metals. I hope you would interview me to be one of your money managers.

I bought a ticket yesterday.  I hope we both win!

Sick and getting sicker..........

After reading the headlines about the US soldier who shot up Afghanistan civilians, I couldn't help noticing an irony. There is all this clamor to try this guy quickly and execute him, never mind his having suffered a traumatic brain injury.

Yet this Major Hasan, who shot up Fort Hood while screaming Allah akbar, still hasn’t stood trial, and they are still debating whether he was insane, even with the clear evidence regarding his motive: slay as many infidels as possible. So we have a guy in a war zone
who cracks, and he must be executed immediately.

But this Muslim psychiatrist who was stateside in a nice safe office all day murders 13, wounds 29 of our own guys, and they try to argue the poor lad suffered post-traumatic stress syndrome, from listening to real soldiers who had actual battle experience. Two and
a half years later, they still haven’t tried the murderous bastard.

Gold YTD

So far in 2012, gold has performed well and is set to end the first quarter in 2012 with gains in all major currencies. Gold is 6.3% higher in US dollars, 3.2% higher in euros, 3.1% higher in pounds, 2.25% higher in Swiss francs and 12% higher in Japanese yen which fell sharply in the quarter.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

$5,000 stomach aches in the ER?

The bill came in the mail today.    A short visit to the emergency room for my son.   $2,546.

It needs an overhaul.   In a big way.   Sheer ugly.

Why, why , why?

As wards of the Federal Government, Indian tribes have the government manage their land, provide them health care and pay for housing.   Indian country has the highest poverty rates, suicide rates, diabetes rates, lowest life expectancy rates, geez, the list goes on and on and on.

The scourge is that around two-thirds of Native American babies are born to single mothers.

Abolishment of the BIA Office of Trust Funds Management would also be a great start.  They have caused more damage to Indian money than Madoff did to his investors.

Monday, March 26, 2012

Telling it straight............

Hope was powerful enough to get the first black, muslim, junior senator from one of the most politically corrupt regions in America elected president.  The "community organizer" needed  to put more community, more fathers and more role models back in the community. 

Facts, just the facts

One of the better food chains on earth............


My sons, Jordan and Hunter enjoying a fine evening at Le Cirque in New Delhi, India with Dad!

If you are going to dream, dream big...........

Click this for a huge mule deer buck!

Home from India

We headed to the airport in Rajasthan a day ago and arrived back on American soil midday yesterday.   Great to be home in this great country even with the marxist in the White House trying to turn us into an India.  Ever been to India?  Imagine 4 times the number of people in our nation on a third of the land mass.  The poverty, pollution and corruption is hard to fathom and I had to look no farther than a fellow guest at the Taj Mahal Hotel in Delhi to see a "fraudster" of epic proportion.  It was none other than Christine Lagarde.  Also there at the same time was the Dalai Lama, go figure.  Doing a deal maybe? 

I'll have more to say in the weeks ahead, right now our good friend Ben Bernanke is promising another round of QE to the Nth power.

I'll take it.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Perspective....

Probably for alot longer than you I've been talking on a cell phone.   They are great tools and I've come to rely on mine as much as anyone in the investment management business.  A couple of nights ago, for the first time in history, my cell phone was lost.   I mean lost.  I mean never to be found again.  Yes, it sucked.  We had covered some great miles together and there were some great calls made over that phone.  Through snow storms, desert heat, different continents and big country in our West she was always a dependable creature.  We had a good bond.  We were friends.  We took care of each other.

As I was moping around after dinner there were several sirens that pulled up to a residence in my neighborhood about a half mile away.  My son and I went on over to see if there might be anything we could help with.  As the paramedics came out of the house pumping fists on the chest of my neighbor that cell phone seemed very insignificant.  It wasn't important at all.  May I never forget that lesson.

Wall Street and yachts............

Just exactly where are the customers' yachts has been a valid question in the securities business for years.

If Chippewa Partners were a client of Goldman Sachs and we are not, I'd want to know if they're referring to me as a "muppet" and or just talking about "ripping my eyeballs out".  

There is a Goldman Sachs office about 25 miles south of us.  More marble inside that office than one can find in the local cemetary.  Somebody was going to pay for it, just not us.

Look in the mirror and ask yourself..............

Why do families persist in taking on $100,000 student loans for mostly mediocre educations with mostly mediocre "benefits" in the job market? Because they feel they have no other choice. Why do people persist in mortgaging their future and accepting the yoke of debt-serfdom to own a house? Because they feel they have no other choice, and owning a house has become integral to the "American dream." Why do local state, county and city politicos continue playing absurd budget games, shuffling funds, borrowing from their employees' pension plans to make this year's pension plan contribution and similar threadbare tricks? You guessed it: they have no other choice, lest someone somewhere feel some pain. Why do our Federal "leaders" borrow $1.5 trillion each and every year now, fully 10% of the nation's total output, knowing full well that this level of borrowing will bankrupt the nation? (Don't forget to add in the "supplemental" off-budget borrowing.) You know: they have no other choice, lest someone somewhere feel some pain. So instead they keep the accelerating vehicle pointed straight for the cliff. There are only two end-states to this level of borrowing: hyper-inflation or default. Any other "choice" is mere fantasy.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Mr. Greg Smith, formerly of Goldman Sachs

Congratulations on sitting down and writing that piece on your former employer.   No doubt, like most employees of brokerage firms you had the general gist of what you wanted to say in your head years ago.

You just had the intestinal fortitude to say it to the world!   Good luck ahead!  

Monday, March 12, 2012

Monday musings...........

On the way home yesterday north driving up Interstate 75 from south Georgia I was passed on two occasions by a couple of young thugs traveling around 100 mph, weaving in and out and around traffic that was generally running between 70 and 80 mph.  What a recipe for disaster.  It should be legal to take down  license plates and have a passenger video their stupidity and turn it over to the law.   These young thugs should have been stopped one way or another. 

Having a job versus making a living......

Young Americans need to understand the difference between a job and earning a living.  

It's been a long time since I have met any young person who wants to work at 2 or 3 jobs to reach their financial goals.   

Bethany Bend, Cogburn Road, Cambridge High School, Kings Ridge

The powers that be just don't get it.   It is a sad state of affairs when government will only react instead of be just a bit PROACTIVE in doing the right thing for the taxpayers.

You have a brand new high school, probably $50,000,000 to toss out a round figure.  Take a very busy intersection at the crossroads of the new school, maintain the single lane aspects and you have, the absolute recipe for road rage and extremely upset taxpayers trying to fight their way to the freeway and get to work along with the thousand or so students and teachers from Kings Ridge and Cambridge High.

August will be hot and miserable.  That intersection needs to be revamped NOW, not later.

The politicians won't do a thing now.  Just ask them.

Shed Hunting March 2012, south Georgia

 

Friday, March 09, 2012

Masters of treaty violations!

Morgan Stanley's Finest at play.............

William Bryan Jennings, the Morgan Stanley (MS) U.S. bond-underwriting chief accused of stabbing a New York cab driver of Middle Eastern descent over a fare, pleaded not guilty to assault and hate-crime charges.
Jennings’s lawyer, Eugene J. Riccio, entered the plea on his client’s behalf today before Connecticut Superior Court Judge Robert L. Genuario in Stamford. Jennings wore a blue suit, white shirt and patterned tie to the proceeding, which lasted less than a minute. He and Riccio left the courthouse without speaking to reporters and drove away in a pickup truck. His next court date is April 12.
Jennings, 45, is accused of attacking the driver, Mohamed Ammar, on Dec. 22 with a 2 1/2-inch blade and using racial slurs after a 40-mile ride from New York to the banker’s Darien, Connecticut, home. The hate-crime count brings the same five-year maximum prison sentence as the assault charge.
Jennings, who had attended a bank holiday party at a boutique hotel in Manhattan before hailing the cab, refused to pay the $204 fare upon arriving in his driveway, the driver said. Jennings said “he did not feel like paying” because he was already home, Ammar, 44, told police. The banker offered to pay $50, he said. Jennings told police Ammar demanded $294 and he offered to pay $160.

Call to 911

Ammar, a native of Egypt, said that after the banker refused to pay, he backed out of the driveway of the $3.4 million home to seek a police officer. Ammar said he had tried to call 911 but was hampered by poor mobile reception in the wealthy Fairfield County suburb.
The banker called him an expletive and said, “I’m going to kill you. You should go back to your country,” according to the police report. A fight ensued as they drove through Darien, and Jennings allegedly cut Ammar, police said.
Jennings said the driver cut his hand trying to grab the knife from him, which he said he wielded because he feared he was being abducted, possibly back to the city. Ammar denied he tried to take Jennings back to New York.
The banker, who eventually fled the cab and turned himself in two weeks later after a vacation in Florida, was charged with second-degree assault, theft of services and intimidation by bias or bigotry. Freed on $9,500 bond, he faces as long as 10 years and three months in prison. He was charged Feb. 29.
Pen Pendleton, a spokesman for New York-based Morgan Stanley, said March 2 that Jennings has been put on leave.

Rate Book

Ammar told police that before they left for Connecticut, he showed Jennings the New York City Taxi & Limousine Commission’s rate book listing the fare at $204. Jennings said they didn’t discuss the fare and he assumed the cost would be $125 to $150, which is what Morgan Stanley’s car service charged, according to police. He had never taken a yellow cab home before, he said.
Jennings flagged Ammar down in front of Ink48, a hotel on Manhattan’s West Side, sometime before 11 p.m. after the banker said his car service didn’t appear, according to the report.
The banker appeared “drunk,” the driver said, according to court documents. Jennings said he drank “two or three Coors Lights” at a charity event he hosted before the party and“several more beers” at the party itself, according to his police statement. He told police he wasn’t “highly intoxicated,” according to the police report.
Jennings fell asleep during the trip, the driver said. Jennings never gave him his address and instead the driver woke him up as they neared the house.

Passenger Flees

After Jennings refused to pay and Ammar drove off with his passenger still in the car, Jennings pulled the knife and began stabbing him through the open partition that divided the front and rear of the cab, Ammar said. Ammar said he tried to defend himself by using his right hand to block the opening, and then pulled over and dialed 911 again, as Jennings got out and fled, police said.
Jennings said he never stabbed Ammar, according to his police statement. He showed the driver he had a knife after they pulled away from his house and Ammar cut himself in trying to grab it away, he told police.
Jennings never threatened to kill Ammar or told him to go back to his country, according to the banker’s police statement.
The Connecticut hate-crime statute, signed into law in 2000, makes it a felony to cause or threaten physical damage to a person or to property with a specific intent to intimidate or harass a person “because of the actual or perceived race, religion, ethnicity, disability, sexual orientation or gender identity or expression of such other person.”
In Connecticut, there were 243 arrests and 33 convictions under the statute from 2007 to 2011, according to Rhonda Stearley-Hebert, a spokeswoman for the State Judicial Branch office. Under the law, Ammar would also be able to sue Jennings for damages.
The case is State of Connecticut v. Jennings 12-0176761, Superior Court for the State of Connecticut (Stamford).

Thank you Mr. President

Following continued strength in earnings (and analyst upgrades), Smith & Wesson is up 23% this morning!

Thursday, March 08, 2012

American military action is coming

Unfortunately for the people of America, Israel, and Iran, the political class and power wielders of their respective governments refuse to learn. Their desire is for more authority and prestige; no matter how many bodies it costs. With the Obama administration  now wanting to provide assistance to the opposition forces in Syria, intervention and war with Iran is only an eventuality at this point.

The re-election campaign is in full swing and Biden heading out shortly to stump for his boss.

Hard to believe.   

Monday, March 05, 2012

Sunday, March 04, 2012

Written by Mark Grant, an American citizen

A Fireside Chat

Picture a fireside, stone around the hearth, Christmas logs of sometime past, a blazing fire and embers glowing beneath them. Imagine a simple room, wood panels and the glow that is reflected from the light that danced upon their lacquered finish. There sat a man next to the fire who was not the Pastor of some church nor some litigator stirring the listeners for re-election but a man speaking to the country and for the betterment of the nation. This man was neither a saint nor a person enshrined with excessive humility and while an American, he stood for those higher principles upon which the foundation of this country rested. He had been elected and while it can honestly be said that he inherited the problems and was not their creator; he knew that the task at hand would be his greatest accomplishment or his worst failure. Yet he was not afraid; he hearkened to the task because he would give his hallowed spirit to overcome what must be defeated. He knew he would persevere because he must and that the demands of this nation’s forefathers had called him to the task at hand.

There were TV cameras, there were always TV cameras, and there were carefully placed microphones and yet he ignored them all as the time had come to have an honest word with the American people. We had come so far, lost so many lives and now it was a different kind of battle that must be undertaken to hold the nation intact. The President, not this President, but one that is needed, was filled with purpose and the stern look of a man with a mission defined as he began his words in the evening of that fateful day.

“I come to you tonight not as your President but as a member of your extended family. The time has come for a serious chat and I fear the lateness of the hour and I apologize for not arriving sooner as the need is great but I am here now and so we must sit down and take stock of the nation. The United States did not get so far, did not become what it is, just because of our armies or the might of its sword. The country is rooted in principles and the Rule of Law that we have rested upon since 1776 and it is because of our foundation that we have been able to flourish. We are a country of people that have chosen to live here and while we cannot be proud of each and every act; we can certainly be proud of most of them and of the inhabitants from across the world that have chosen to reside in America.

Tonight we face a difficult task because, just as in any household in our country that has lived beyond its means; the country has lived beyond its means. The reality is that the nation, just like any family, only has so many resources and only has so much income and that the debts of the country must be constrained by what we can afford. I am here to tell you this evening that we have overspent, over indulged our desires and that we must walk back from the brink before we step into some abyss that overwhelms us. Our debt has passed more than one hundred percent of the yearly income of the country and we have headed down a path strewn with thorns that can no longer be ignored as it is tearing our clothing as we move forward in time. Further we have lost some of the purpose of the United States as while we must help those citizens in need, we cannot afford, any longer, to subsidize those people that do not want to work or wish to live upon the earnings of others. This may be the way of some countries but it is not the spirit of this country and so we must backtrack from social policies that encourage it.

We have $14.3 Trillion in income and we now have a debt that is more than $15 Trillion and this is not sustainable. Because the numbers are so large and because I wish no confusion for anyone; allow me to present this in another way. If the income of your family is $40,000.00 and you have debts of $50,000.00 then you know that some changes must be made and quickly and that is exactly the circumstances we find ourselves in tonight. We have over spent, over promised and we cannot deliver without quite real consequences for the nation that would eventually shatter the American dream and lead to the destabilization of the country and that I will not allow. We must cut back and while it may be painful and while not everyone will agree on the measures that I propose I am sure that we can find enough common ground to proceed with the task at hand not as Republicans and not as Democrats but as members of a common family that has made some mistakes in judgment. I propose a twenty percent minimum tax rate for all corporations in America and then the deductions in place can be utilized for the difference between the twenty percent rate and the highest rate of thirty-five percent. I propose that Social Security, for people under forty, be trimmed back but with appropriate tax incentives for those that invest soundly and their savings will be rewarded by these new tax breaks. I also propose a cut-back in in Medicare that does not affect our older citizens but is also applied to those under forty with tax breaks for their buying and maintaining private health insurance. It is a major change in the social structure of America no doubt but one that must be made to bring the country back to financial health because the country cannot survive without sound fiscal policies legislated for the nation.

Next I want to address with you the issue of oil and of the country’s energy needs. We should all be conscious of the environment and of being responsible when drilling for oil or natural gas and America needs to do her best to preserve her resources and use them with careful thought for this generation and for the next generation. I begin with these points so it is clear that we have obligations but I also state with absolute certainty and regardless of any mistakes made that we can no longer afford to reward those nations with our energy dollars that wish to overthrow the fundamental principles of the United States. We can no longer allow for the capital of this country to be invested where terrorists and others who seek to bring us harm reside. We have the resources, we have the technology and I intend to propose to Congress a new set of laws that will end our contribution to any nation that seeks America’s demise, is involved with terrorism or is not a member in good standing of the world’s community.

I also address the social crumbling of this country’s foundation tonight which is to ask when being successful became a pariah in the nation’s thinking. The United States was founded upon the principles of success, upon hard work, upon striving to accomplish our goals and when did we lose this most basic of premises is unknown to me but it is one we must re-establish for the good of our country and of our children. I applaud the man or woman who takes the initiative, makes the hard choices and works diligently to provide a better life for himself and his family and I am in the stands cheering as he passes by and marches upon his own two strong legs. I am in the crowd of admirers and I will not allow for him to be degraded by anyone whether he works on Wall Street or Main Street or whether the invention of some new idea has granted him riches that others have not attained. What is great about this country is that success can be achieved, can be attained and this is one of the cornerstones upon which America rests. Here are the real heroes of this country and deriding these people, so much lately a part of our national fiber, is a disease that has infected this nation and one that I intend to move both Heaven and Earth to try and cure. Horatio Alger and the like were always the rock of the United States and the current spirit in the land to look down upon those that have achieved some success will no longer be tolerated in my presence and I envision the day when not in yours either.

The times in the short run will no doubt be difficult and the choices facing us will not be easy. Many alternatives will be presented and many programs offered and not everyone will agree with what the Congress ultimately decides but choose we must and so we will as I ask for your endurance and support during these difficult moments in our history. What I can assure you, what I can promise you, is that we shall come through this and emerge as a better and stronger country where each man and woman can rest calmly at night knowing that his and her future and the futures of their children will be safer given the difficult choices that we will make in the next few months and then implement to help insure the success of the nation.”

I ask that you join me in my own personal hopes and prayers that someday soon, from someone, we are all able to hear the essence of this speech.

Jordan Parisian on the winning 4x800 relay team

Saturday, March 03, 2012

Zero Hedge stuffing GM once again.......

On Thursday, Zero Hedge exposed GM's latest strong car sales data as nothing more than the latest in a long series of accounting gimmicks known as 'channel stuffing' when excess inventory is offloaded to a vendor channel, in this case GM dealers, while allowing the company to book revenue, and, of course, profits (most likely on a FIFO basis thus further making numbers a complete myth in a time of once again surging input costs). The problem with channel stuffing is it can only go on for so long before the intermediary collapses under its own weight due to so much excess inventory the only next possible step is wholesale dumpin, in the process destroying the brand. Sure enough, it took about 24 hours for this latest speculation to be proven right as GM announce it was "temporarily" halting production of its Volt electric car. Per The Hill: "We needed to maintain proper inventory and make sure that we continued to meet market demand," GM spokesman Chris Lee said in a telephone interview." Translated into English, this means that GM has flooded dealer floors with so many of the spontaneously combusting cars that it has managed to bring demand to zero.

Thursday, March 01, 2012

BATS in Georgia......these don't swing!!!

State wildlife biologists Trina Morris and Nikki Castleberry are a quarter-mile beneath tons of rock, smeared with mud and chilled to the bone from spending hours thigh-deep in a subterranean mountain stream. Welcome to Georgia's frontline against white-nose syndrome, where the work is sometimes miserable but ever vital.

The good news? "We haven't found bats in Georgia that look like they're impacted by white-nose," Morris says.

The bad: They won't be surprised if they do. The disease that has killed an estimated 5.7 million to 6.7 million cave-dwelling bats from New England to the Midwest and Canada, wiping out some hibernacula or overwintering sites of these airborne insect terminators, has been documented as close as Tennessee and North Carolina.

Native American Advisors CHIPPEWA PARTNERS

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CHIPPEWA PARTNERS, Native American Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor, founded by Dean Thomas Parisian in 1995. The firm is a manager to an exclusive clientele and is closed to new clients. As a Registered Investment Advisor, our expertise developed over 35 years balances experience, integrity and tremendous work ethic. Dean Parisian is a member at the White Earth Reservation of the Minnesota Chippewa Tribe, a former NYSE and FINRA arbitrator and trader who began his career with Kidder Peabody and later worked for Drexel Burnham Lambert in LaJolla, CA. His philanthropic interest is in Native American education and he's endowed a significant scholarship for Native Americans at the University of Minnesota. His greatest accomplishment includes raising two sons and 26 years of marriage. The Parisian family enjoys outdoor pursuits at Pamelot, their farm in Tennessee and at the Ghost Ranch, their ranch on the Yellowstone River in Montana. For media requests contact the firm via email: ChippewaPartners (at) gmail dot com, on Twitter: @DeanParisian. Global 404-202-8173