Members of the Tribe?

There's an adage among floor traders about "Selling Rosh Hashanah" and "Buying Yom Kippur." So far, if you sold on October 4 (Rosh Hashanah), you've been sitting pretty the last 6 sessions. If the saying holds true, then this Thursday, October 13, should finally start to see some buyers enter into this market.

from the Speculator himself.................

10/11/2005Briefly Speaking: Market Moves, by Victor Niederhoffer
The market during the last 10 months has gone from a daily close below 1200 to a daily close above 1200 on six separate occasions. It is hard to test whether this is random or not.
Of the 220 European stock market indexes listed on my screen, all are up. Of the 85 North American and South American markets on my screen, all except Jamaica and the U.S. are up. Of the 85 Asian markets, 75 of 85 are up, the only ones down being China and Taiwan and Malaysia. There is some double-counting here because many indexes are for the same country. Ten of the 20 U.S. markets are up.
The market has gone down open to close six days in a row, and is now below the open for the seventh day.
It is common to think that high oil prices are associated with low stock prices. However, the move up to $70 oil was in conjunction with a S&P well above 1200 and the recent move to five-month lows in oil circa $60 is in conjunction with the current S&P low. More microscopic testing confirms the relation.
Thomson projects third-quarter earnings comparisons for the S&P to be up 15%. The yearly estimated earnings, according to a Zacks survey based on eight estimates is $73.50 a share for 2005 and $78.40 for year-end 2006, based on diluted EPS from continuing operations.

Word of the Day...............

Erythrism: a morbid fondness for the color red (Funk and Wagnalls Int'l Edition)
Example: Since the start of October the market has seemingly developed a severe case of erythrism on my quote screen.

Perfect for Clients of Big Brokerage Firms.........

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Suppose you wanted to invest in hedge funds and your principal was guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.? At first blush, this sounds like an easy way to anchor a risky investment within a safe vehicle. Two federally insured certificates of deposit (CDs) are being sold that are linked to the return of a hedge fund index maintained by Hedge Fund Research, Inc. of Chicago. One is offered by HSBC Securities USA, a unit of Europe's largest bank. The other is sold by Bear Stearns Cos., the New York-based securities firm. (..) There are a few catches with the principal guarantees on both CDs. Although Bear Stearns says it intends to maintain a secondary market for the CD, early redeemers would receive the lower amount in a bid-ask spread. The guarantee is only good up to $100,000 and only if you hold seven years to maturity. There's no minimum interest with either product. Both certificates only pay if the return of the underlying index --the HFR U.S. Global Hedge Fund Index (HFRXGL) -- is above an ``initial index level equal to the closing price of the index on the month the CD is issued,'' according to the Bear Stearns CD's terms. Then there are the expenses. Unlike a standard CD sold by a bank, Bear Stearns investors are charged a monthly fee called an ``adjustment factor'' that reduces the return of the index by 1.8 percent annually. (..) Mike Dubis, a certified financial planner with Touchstone Financial in Madison, Wisconsin, said he was troubled by the fact that neither certificate pays interest or dividends annually. ``I do not like what I'm seeing,'' he said. ``It's expensive, confusing, illiquid, no dividend inclusion, tied to a poorly managed index and psychologically confusing to investors. I would not allow any of my clients to buy this product.'' (.. )
Expensive, confusing, illiquid, no dividend inclusion, tied to a poorly managed index and psychologically confusing...Sounds like they've created the perfect product for clients of big Wall Street Brokerage firms! The sheep don't know what they buy, they just want to believe they have a shot at making half a buck. Layers of fees abound to the delight of the marketing guru's who put these products together. Wall Street once again going to the bank with slick advertising. The beat goes on.

Odds n Ends...........

With the Braves losing yesterday it started to rain in Atlanta. Is that a correlation we can trade? As of late the Wall Street Journal is so full of stories on accounting firm indiscretion that it defies being ordinary news. Hundreds of millions of dollars of fines are levied and the beat goes on. KPMG being a real scoundrel. Scum is more like it. And no one goes to jail. Today we have a Marine being fingered as a spy in the White House. Interesting. Guess he was trying to get out the information to his Filipino's pals. Good thing somebody was doing something in the White House to catch him. George W. Bush won't do anything on social security, tax reform or shutting down our borders. Of course, neither party will shut down the borders lest they offend the all-important Hispanic vote in 2008. Does anyone really care about OUR country anymore? We need this correction in the market. It is healthy. A wall of worry is healthy. Believe it. COSTCO today announced a share buy-back program. More of the same. Publicity stunts. Corporate America wants you to believe the best use of corporate assets is to buy back stock in the open market, decrease the number of shares outstanding and drive the earnings-per-share number higher. Oh, if it were that easy. There is no way that shareholders can STOP the massive dilution of earnings by the insiders themselves in issuing and exercising their stock options. Which is why real estate is such a beauty. No dilution. Believe it.

On the Sage from the Baltimore Sun...........

Warren Buffett's digestion is threatened these days by more than T-bone steaks and Dairy Queen ice cream. Often as not recently, the world's foremost dollar doubter has been waking up to find the greenback gaining in value, shaming its critics and costing him and his shareholders millions... Not long after boss Buffett decided he was not just a stock-picker but an applied macroeconomist, competent to bet on global fund flows, Berkshire began lagging behind the stock market... If the greenback continues to rise or at least maintains most of its recent gains ... many scary stories you've heard about the future U.S. economy won't come true.

Worlds shortest fairy tale.......from Ron Branch

Once upon a time, a guy asked a girl "Will you marry me?" The girl said, "NO!" And the guy lived happily ever after and went golfing and hunting and fishing a lot and drank beer whenever he wanted. THE END

Carnage.............

The Gulf Coast casino's were put out of business temporarily. They were stopped from destructing the assets of those who enter their premises. Amazing how the politicians think that a gambling casino is actually necessary for a healthy, vibrant local economy.