Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Interesting odds.......from the U.K.

Online gambling firm BetUS has calculated some of the odds for the iPhone's success, the company revealed today. Giving the same attention to the device that it normally would to sports, the betting house has calculated several factors that could determine its success or failure. Certain outcomes are already fairly likely, BetUS says. Stock value is 1:2 likely to spike by 10 percent or more the next trading day. Odds are also 5:6 that the phone will sell 12 million units in 2008; these chances also carry over to the iPhone's sales in the first month, which BetUS claims are equally likely (5:6) to climb over or dip under 1.2 million units in July.
Certain spectacles that are commonly associated with high-profile launches are also taken into account with less favorable odds, such as reports of camping in line (3:1), trampling or other violence during the launch (20:1), and prices tripling to $1,500 or more on auction sites such as eBay (2:1).Odds have also been given for failures, however. The company points out that while any one malfunction or defect is expected to be rare, the feature set makes breakdowns a possibility."This phone has everything but the kitchen sink," company spokesman Reed Richards claims. "The chances for a malfunction are likely."The most probable example of a failure would be sub-optimal battery life with 10:1 odds, according to the company. Other pitfalls are said to include a mass recall of the initial batch (30:1) and relatively unlikely problems such as iPod nano-like screen cracking and outright "spontaneous combustions," both of which are rated at 150:1.

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Alaska status-quo...............

Lobbyists spend over a billion bucks a day lobbying our esteemed politicians. That is the amount that is "legally" reported. I'm sure there are plenty of other freezers full of cash inside and outside the Beltway though.

Politics in Alaska look to be business-as-usual. Remember, if it smells like a fish it's probably very fishy. Here's a snippet on Senator Stevens.

"Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) had his son, former state Senate President Ben Stevens, head a board that distributed $12 million in federal grants to promote seafood companies that, at the same time, paid the younger Stevens upward of $775,000 in "consulting fees."
This arrangement has caught the FBI's attention. Last fall, at least three fisheries were issued grand jury subpoenas to hand over documents related to the lobbying and consulting work provided by the younger Stevens and a former aide to Sen. Stevens, Trevor McCabe. The subpoenas also sought any documents connected to the older Stevens. "

Truth be told......................

Everything I need to know about Islam I learned on 9/11/2001.

Friday, June 22, 2007

Survival of the fittest..................

Watch it all and watch it very closely.................

http://glumbert.com/media/battlespecies

I hope you were able to clearly detect all of the predators involved here. Death can come swift from many fronts both in life and in the markets. The lessons involving the stock market that can be gleaned from this video are many. Here are some you might want to consider.

When you think you are right maintain conviction and go for the juglar and do it fast.

Watch your flanks.

Try to find you who and why they are selling to you.

The big crowd can take you out by leaning on your position.

The market is always right.

Eventually the broad market is going to do whatever it wants to do.

Don't get killed to trade another day.

Sunday, June 17, 2007

It's Fathers Day, here is some fatherly advice......

Investment advisors are governed by the Investment Advisors Act of 1940, which places on them a fiduciary obligation to act solely in a client's best interests, or face a lawsuit for breach of fiduciary duty. This is a much higher standard than one of mere "suitability." Indeed, a "fiduciary" standard legally obligates an advisor to put aside personal interests, and is required to act in good faith when making decisions for clients.

Faced with the choice of working with a broker who is held to a mere suitability standard, or an investment advisor who is held to a fiduciary standard, investors who require the services of an advisor should always choose to work with an advisory firm who is duty-bound to look out for the investors best interests.

Most investors are not savvy enough to understand this regulatory distinction.

I know this may be hard to believe but try this test. Ask your broker to send you a letter in which he states that he or she is acting as your fiduciary. I doubt seriously they will do it. It is a fundamental problem that cuts to the core of the lack of integrity on Wall Street. Believe it at your own peril.

Even if you don't, trusting your retirement to a salesman is probably a very bad idea.

Native America never, ever forget........

It is not easy to get rich at the Mohegan Sun, Viejas, the Shooting Star or at the local Merrill Lynch or Morgan Stanley office.

Monday, June 11, 2007

Investing 101..........

Seriously. One of the best places on the planet to find stocks that have merit as viable short-sale candidates is "watching" the internet chat room, "INVESTING" on AOL.

Truly a gem of a place to find the public touting hot picks that crater.

For every Cherokee who thinks they are Indian..........

Or even if only your "grandmother was a full blooded Cherokee princess"..........how many times have I heard that said over my short 53 winters?

Here she is. Do your work. Examine her credentials.

http://stacyleeds.com/

Custer, by Peter Grieve.........www.dailyspeculations.com

I've been thinking about guerrilla war as a result of a trip to the Custer battlefield. Everyone knows that guerillas usually shun contact with conventional forces, "evaporate like the mist". I thought this was only good for self preservation.

But now I see the obvious fact that it has an offensive component. If the men of the conventional forces become hungry for contact and their officers come under career-changing pressure actually to fight a battle, they may become less fastidious about the kind of contact they're after. And then they get the kind they want least.

Stefan Jovanovich adds:
The pressure that Custer felt was of his own making. He and his wife believed that a victory against the Sioux would reward him with enough notoriety to make him president. In retrospect that seems like a mad fantasy. But by 1876 the Republican Party had had only three candidates for President - Fremont, Lincoln, and Grant, and two of them had been U.S. Army officers.
Largely because of Mrs. Custer's relentless promotion of her husband's folly into heroism, Custer's subordinate commanders, especially Major Reno, became the fall guys. The truth is that Lt. Colonel Custer (he had been a General of Volunteers during the Civil War) would have been court-martialed if he had survived. The plan for the campaign against the Lakota had been for three columns to attack jointly.

As commander of one of the columns, Custer disobeyed his orders by not waiting for the other 2 columns and then spliting his own command in thirds. He ended up attacking with a force 11% of the planned assault force. Yet, had he shared Teddy Roosevelt's incredible good fortune at Kettle Hill and become a hero of the Indian Wars, Custer might have become President.

From Russell Sears:
This leads to the countable hypothesis that CEOs who marry/partner with someone within the company, soon cause the company to under perform.

Dean Parisian writes:
My father retired from the Bureau of Indian Affairs in Crow Agency, MT in 1985 and as a kid I spent a fair amount of time at the Battlefield there as Crow Agency adjoins the Custer Battlefield monument.

The lesson here is that when you chase returns in markets you aren’t familiar with or chase Indians in country you don’t know very well there is a good chance one can get hurt. Quick and seriously. Stick with what you know and when it looks like you are out-manned, cut your losses and run. Living to fight another day is paramount.

America doesn't need amnesty for criminal aliens..........

George, listen up. It is less about the criminals here illegally than it is about putting up a fence that protects America and actually works. The fence will protect us from more criminal aliens. America does not want them. Just put up the fence that was appropriated and then rid our nation of the criminals. Try it, it just might work.

The immigration bill, amnesty, health care, social security reform, tax code reform, a balanced budget, none will be your legacy.

Only by Iraq and your bloated budget will we remember you. So sad but true.

Friday, June 08, 2007

Looking back.............

A few short years ago, we had the bald man parading the floor of the New York Stock Exchange telling the world about the specialist system, the transparency, the auction system, "open-outcry" system of price discovery, blah blah blah..........while making his nearly $200,000,000 in his retirement benefits. Goldman Sachs gets their man in the hot seat, Grasso gets dumped, the NYSE seat-holders make their money and the specialist system is in shambles. Once the seat-holders were paid off, the floor has gotten so quiet it should be a museum. Or a jail.

Thursday, June 07, 2007

A technicians technician........Ralph

Ralph Acampora and I worked at Kidder Peabody at the same time, a long time ago.

I remember his great fun and humor first and secondly, his office, in the guts of a bank vault at 20 Exchange Place in the bowels of lower Manhattan. His war room was just that.

Protection from the market when it does its usual gyrations. And probably from Dick Kimball who went from investment strategist to retail producer.

I wonder if Ralph ever made any serious money trading his own money and if he was a good analyst/trader/technician (not that they are one and the same, far from it), why is he still working at a firm and not for a trading partnership where he gets a piece of the trading profits?

Then end of Prudential research.........

When Prudential jettisoned their retail brokers a couple of years ago the writing was on the wall.

Yesterday the announcement by Prudential that they were shuddering their research, sales and trading operations finally came in. Where's Ralph Acampora now?

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

SAC's Stevie Cohen.............

Hey Steve, you are a rich guy. Very rich. You have the game figured out. As Dave Utter says, it's too easy. You buy a huge chunk of shares in a company and issue a press release saying that you think the company should do a merger. Stock gaps up and you go to the bank.

Not bad work if u can get it.

It's too easy.

Monday, June 04, 2007

Thought for the day..........

Has anyone ever thought about renouncing their citizenship and becoming an illegal immigrant?

Did George Carlin write this?

Bush wants us to cut the amount of gas we use. The best way to stop using so much gas is to deport 11 million illegal immigrants! That would be 11million less people using our gas. The price of gas would come down. Bring our troops home from Iraq to guard the border. When they catch an illegal immigrant crossing the border, hand him a canteen, rifle and some ammo and ship him to Iraq . Tell him if he wants to come to America then he must serve a tour in the military. Give him a soldier's pay while he's there and tax him on it. After his tour, he will be allowed to become a citizen since he defended this country. He will also be registered to be taxed and be a legal patriot. This option will probably deter illegal immigration and provide a solution for the troops in Iraq and the aliens trying to make a better life for themselves. If they refuse to serve, ship them to Iraq anyway, without the canteen, rifle or ammo. Problem solved. If you think this is a good solution to both the problems, forward it to your friends. I just did. George Carlin

For the record............

Chippewa Partners exited all exposure to China. All. Last week.

The 6.8% down move in China last week was the first shot across the bow. Human nature doesn't change. Fear will grip the millions and millions of novice investors. There is nothing wrong with investing in China, in fact, we will be back when the time is right.

Our mission is simple We are paid to protect and grow the assets of our clients.

This will get ugly.

Sunday, June 03, 2007

Sickening news..............

The U.S. military said Sunday that 14 American soldiers were killed over the past three days, including four in a single roadside bombing and another who was struck by a suicide bomber while on a foot patrol.

For the rest of my life when I see an American without a limb I will think of the Iraq war. I will think and pray for the families, the sons and daughters of those who died in the sand of Iraq. I will think of those maimed, blind and limbless at the hands of Iraqi or Iranian shrapnel.

Saturday, June 02, 2007

Last night's country music in the A T L...............

Last nights show at Phillips Arena was okay. Hank Williams Jr. aka HANK and Skynard, the band formerly known as Leonard Skynard a gazillion years ago put it together to an unpacked house of country music lovers, rednecks and assorted folks who were there to party.

I wonder what a good concert would be to them without alchohol? Sitting up in a box watching the number of people passing plastic bottles of god-knows-what around to pour down their throats was great entertainment. I wish Skynard would have played Freebird and Sweet Home Alabama first so we could have gotten out of there earlier but hey, it was a beautiful night in Georgia.

It always amazes me what it will take to clean up downtown Atlanta and make the area around Phillips and the Georgia Dome a decent, family-friendly part of the city. Where are the upbeat restaurants, drug-free and crime-free parks, outdoor entertainment, etc.? I thought the 1996 games would get it done. Wrong. Downtown Atlanta at night is a joke. As the limo driver said, 80% of their customer base is on the Northside. Maybe it is time to put the concert venues where the majority of paying customers live. Ya think? Is anyone listening? Ted Turner had that wrong. The Dome should have been where Atlantic Station is. At a major confluence of freeways and available space. And speaking of freeways, is there a bigger bunch of loony tune state highway employees/planners in America than in Georgia? The cozy relationship between road-builders, politicians and DOT folks is one for the ages. And good Georgians will have to live with the results, probably forever.

Rock on Hank, you looked sober and sang super!

Friday, June 01, 2007

Wall Street Mismanagement..........

Look at the names below and see if you can find a common denominator.

Kidder Peabody & Co. Inc.

Drexel Burnham Lambert

Thomson McKinnon

Prudential Bache

Prudential Securities

A. G. Edwards & Sons, Inc.

First Union Securities


See a common thread? Probably not, but all of them, if not already, are names that will no longer be in existence as brokerage firms. Amazing.

They are the names of every brokerage firm I was ever associated with, many names having changed while I was working in the same seat, wiith the same phone number, with the same manager.

One of the myriad of reasons I founded Chippewa Partners, Native American Advisors, Inc. in 1995 was because the writing was on the wall. The role of the customers man was a dying breed. Wall Street is all about Wall Street.

Ask any old salt in a brokerage firm today and he will agree with that statement. If he doesn't he is a liar. Or maybe doesn't even know what a customer's man is.

Today it is about keeping your seat, selling the investment product de jour, global scale, trying to compete with the likes of Mother Merrill herself, keeping the compliance departments happy and trying to dish out the latest IPO that was no doubt the product of some private equity deal or venture deal in the fairly recent past. The liquidity out there is amazing today and these firms trying to buy brokers and assets continues to make little sense for investors.

These deals aren't geared to make money for anyone except the honcho's at the brokerage firms.

And they are geared to separate the assets of the customers from the customer.

A.G. Edwards clients beware, If your broker hasn't pounded your account silly yet, you'll have a Wachovia product rammed onto your account statement soon enough.

Native American Advisors CHIPPEWA PARTNERS

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CHIPPEWA PARTNERS, Native American Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor, founded by Dean Thomas Parisian in 1995. The firm is a manager to an exclusive clientele and is closed to new clients. As a Registered Investment Advisor, our expertise developed over 35 years balances experience, integrity and tremendous work ethic. Dean Parisian is a member at the White Earth Reservation of the Minnesota Chippewa Tribe, a former NYSE and FINRA arbitrator and trader who began his career with Kidder Peabody and later worked for Drexel Burnham Lambert in LaJolla, CA. His philanthropic interest is in Native American education and he's endowed a significant scholarship for Native Americans at the University of Minnesota. His greatest accomplishment includes raising two sons and 26 years of marriage. The Parisian family enjoys outdoor pursuits at Pamelot, their farm in Tennessee and at the Ghost Ranch, their ranch on the Yellowstone River in Montana. For media requests contact the firm via email: ChippewaPartners (at) gmail dot com, on Twitter: @DeanParisian. Global 404-202-8173