Sunday, June 17, 2018

Trade like a pro.........

Hedge Fund manager: "So we look for red flags. Melting ice cubes, unsustainable leverage, and dishonest mgmt teams, to name a few." Potential Investor/Limited Partner: "That's fine on shorts, how do you find longs?" Hedge Fund Manager: "Those are longs. It's 2018. Nothing matters.

Friday, June 15, 2018

Mid Term Terror Out There.............

There was a revolution within the Republican party in 2016.  Trump won that battle.  No such thing has happened in the Democratic party.  They're still running dinosaurs and wondering why they can't win.  People like Pelosi will stay in power as long as she can.
No different that Stalin, Castro, Maduro, Jeremy Corbin, and all other notable lefties.  Once they have a taste of power, they can't let it go.

Saturday, June 09, 2018

Demons everywhere.................

“If I'm an advocate for anything, it's to move. As far as you can, as much as you can. Across the ocean, or simply across the river. Walk in someone else's shoes or at least eat their food. It's a plus for everybody." -Anthony Bourdain

Friday, June 08, 2018

This is authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog. Great writer!!

If your family is really struggling right now, you are far from alone.  I have been publishing The Economic Collapse Blog for more than eight years, and all throughout that time I have seen the middle class in America get smaller and smaller and smaller.  It is almost as if we are all playing a really bizarre game of musical chairs and every month someone pulls a few more chairs from the game.  Yes, there are some people that have gotten exceedingly wealthy over the past eight years, and most of that wealth is concentrated in places such as New York, Washington D.C. and San Francisco.  But meanwhile, most of the rest of the country has been steadily getting poorer.  Just take a look at Detroit – at one time it had the highest per capita income in the entire nation and now it is a rotting, decaying war zone.  Of course dozens of other formerly great manufacturing cities all over the nation have suffered a similar fate.  Since 2001, we have lost more than 70,000 manufacturing facilities and millions of good paying manufacturing jobs.  Those good paying jobs have been replaced by lower paying “service jobs”, and you can’t support a middle class lifestyle on those types of jobs.
In order to have a thriving middle class, you need middle class jobs, and our country is in desperate need of more of those jobs.  At this point most American families are living on the edge, and more are falling into poverty with each passing month.  The following are 15 signs that the middle class in the United States is being systematically destroyed…
#1 78 million Americans are participating in the “gig economy” because full-time jobs just don’t pay enough to make ends meet these days.
#2 In 2011, the average home price was 3.56 times the average yearly salary in the United States.  But by the time 2017 was finished, the average home price was 4.73 times the average yearly salary in the United States.
#3 In 1980, the average American worker’s debt was 1.96 times larger than his or her monthly salary.  Today, that number has ballooned to 5.00.
#4 In the United States today, 66 percent of all jobs pay less than 20 dollars an hour.
#5 102 million working age Americans do not have a job right now.  That number is higher than it was at any point during the last recession.
#6 Earnings for low-skill jobs have stayed very flat for the last 40 years.
#7 Americans have been spending more money than they make for 28 months in a row.
#8 In the United States today, the average young adult with student loan debt has a negative net worth.
#9 At this point, the average American household is nearly $140,000 in debt.
#10 Poverty rates in U.S. suburbs “have increased by 50 percent since 1990”.
#11 Almost 51 million U.S. households “can’t afford basics like rent and food”.
#12 The bottom 40 percent of all U.S. households bring home just 11.4 percent of all income.
#13 According to the Federal Reserve, 4 out of 10 Americans do not have enough money to cover an unexpected $400 expense without borrowing the money or selling something they own.
#14 22 percent of all Americans cannot pay all of their bills in a typical month.
#15 Today, U.S. households are collectively 13.15 trillion dollars in debt.  That is a new all-time record.
When you think of “poverty in America”, you probably think of our blighted inner cities, but that is not where poverty is growing the fastest.
According to author Scott Allard, it is actually our suburbs where poverty is growing more rapidly than anywhere else…
According to a May report from the Pew Research Center, since 2000, suburban counties have experienced sharper increases in poverty than urban or rural counties.
This is consistent with research across the U.S. over the past decade – as well as my own book, “Places in Need.”
This is why tens of millions of square feet of retail space is being closed down and why formerly great shopping malls all over America now resemble ghost towns.
When I was growing up, the shopping mall was the place to be for average middle class kids.  My family was middle class and virtually everyone that I knew was middle class.  In fact, I don’t remember any really wealthy or really poor kids in my school at all.
But today most families have little to no financial cushion and are deep in debt.  As a result, discretionary income has really dried up and that means less shopping.
So we are on pace for the worst year for store closings in American history, and yet the mainstream media keeps telling us that the economy is in “good shape”.
That is a load of nonsense.  The numbers don’t lie, and the U.S. economy is never going to be in “good shape” until the middle class starts growing again.
Is there a solution?
Well, the mayor of Stockton, California seems convinced that the solution is just to give people free money.  The following comes from Reuters
Michael Tubbs, the 27-year-old mayor of Stockton, California, has a radical plan to combat poverty in his cash-strapped city: a “no strings” guaranteed basic income of $500 a month for its residents.
Starting in early 2019, Tubbs plans to provide the monthly stipend to a select group of residents as part of a privately funded 18-month experiment to assess how people use the money.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful if we all just started getting big, fat checks from the government every month?

NYSE. New York Stock Exchange

This is without a doubt the finest "comment letter" ever written to the NYSE.     It goes without saying that an exchange should not be a for-profit entity.  If anything, the actual role of the SEC to facilitate trading (in a fair manner) should be paramount.  Like anything else, follow the money trail and one will quickly and understandably know that nothing about our exchange structure is open, fair or honest. 

 

Subject: Transaction fee pilot 82873 (file s7-05-18)
From: Danny Mulson

June 7, 2018
Dear Mr Fields,

Let me start by apologizing for my tardy response, to your request for comments. My dad has routinely tried to impress upon me the need to meet deadlines. In my defence I have been busy with mid term exams, at Aberdeen High, and only became concerned about this debate in recent days. 

Our grade 10 economics teacher, Mr Canton, mentioned your proposed pilot some weeks ago, but it was only when my dad showed me a letter the New York Stock Exchange had sent him - as CFO of a NYSE listed issuer - that I became alarmed about the state of this debate. As a shareholder in that company - my dad recently gave me shares for my 16th birthday - I felt I had to respond. 

The letter in question, and the BLOG piece it was linked to, contained a number of assertions that the NYSE knows, or ought to have known, were false. While I am a fan or rigorous two sides debate - and hope to join the Aberdeen Debate Society next year - I am not a fan of obfuscation, dishonesty or other logically trickery to win an argument. Debate should be honest, and engage in with an open mind, aimed at finding the greater truth. Instead the NYSE appears to be presenting indefensible numbers in an attempt to fear monger and protect ill gotten gains. Shame on them. 

In both the letter and the blog, NYSE confidently states that your pilot will harm investors to the tune of $1 Billion dollars. As a fan of the Austin Powers movies, I found that part awesome. But when I read the underlying analysis I cringed. 

NYSE assume that a reduction in average passive rebate, resulting from your pilot, will result in both the bid and offer being backed off, on average, by the exact same amount as the rebate reduction. My  understanding of markets suggests this is total nonsense for several reasons:

1) it assumes that only rebate driven liquidity providers set the quote. But in reality the quote is almost always set by natural investors, who have a view of fair price, that is informed by both fundamental and quantitative research as well as the likely impact of their own short term trading intentions. While some HFT are able to consistently gain top of book, they do so by modeling micro term order book dynamics and predicting quote changes. Removing rebates will not disrupt the desire of natural investors to post liquidity and tighten spreads.
2) A massive share of trading in the most liquid names currently occurs on venues - both lit and dark - where passive orders are not paid a rebate. These venues do not have wider spreads, so removing or reducing rebates at classic make / take venues should not result in wider spreads on these names. 
That said, let's give the NYSE this point. We will assume spreads magically widen by the rebate reduction, on average. The numbers calculated by NYSE are sill dishonest for the following reasons
1) the NYSE multiplies everything by 2. They suggest spreads will widen  by 2 times the rebate reduction, because both sides will back off. So in their calculation they multiple total shares traded times rebate reduction times two. But on any given trade only one side is paying the spread. For example take a stock trading on average at .10 - .11. Assume rebates decline by 10 mills. The new average quote is.099 - .101. If I buy 100 shares, my spread relate costs go up by 10 mills ( .101 vs.10) not 20 mills. Thus the number that NYSE published is overstated by AT Least 100 percent. Are we to believe nobody at the New York Stock Exchange understands such simple math? 
2) the calculation uses an ADV of 7.169 Billion shares. That is all trading in tape A, B and C names. Which is to say they include volume that doesn't currently involve a rebate- such as broker crosses, mid point dark, opening and closing auctions. That is flat out dishonest math.
3) they give no allowance for inverted venues. If passive rebate decline will wide  quotes, it must be true that passive posting fee declines will tighten spreads. 
4) the 7.169 Billion shares includes volume for all stocks, But only 3000 names will be impacted by the pilot. The letter and blog clearly state the pilot may cost investors 1 Billion dollars. But more than 50 percent of names wont be in the pilot. Including their volume is again intellectually dishonest.

As a 10th grader I believe we should base policy on honest data, not fear mongering and spin. I have told my dad he should move his stock to IEX. The NYSE has a mandate to do public good. Their dishinesty belies that mandate. They need to do better.

I wish you good luck with your pilot, and thank you for your efforts. I apologize for any typos, the iPhone X's keyboard is awful.

Sincerely,

Danny Mulson
10th Grader
Aberdeen High
Wetlawn, Oregon

Friday analysis of the SWAMP!

The NY Times reporter who said there is no such thing as the Deep State was sleeping with and getting classified documents from the Director of Senate Intel Security who was married to a 20 year FBI agent Let that sink in

If you are keeping score...........

Jeff Sessions.

In 18 months.

2 arrests.

GMAFB...............

Facts. Just the facts.

Trump = 7 ppl granted clemency
Obama = 1,927 ppl granted clemency
Carter + Reagan + George H.W. Bush + Clinton + George W. Bush = 1,708 ppl granted clemency

Native American Advisors CHIPPEWA PARTNERS

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CHIPPEWA PARTNERS, Native American Advisors, Inc. is a Registered Investment Advisor, founded by Dean Thomas Parisian in 1995. The firm is a manager to an exclusive clientele and is closed to new clients. As a Registered Investment Advisor, our expertise developed over 35 years balances experience, integrity and tremendous work ethic. Dean Parisian is a member at the White Earth Reservation of the Minnesota Chippewa Tribe, a former NYSE and FINRA arbitrator and trader who began his career with Kidder Peabody and later worked for Drexel Burnham Lambert in LaJolla, CA. His philanthropic interest is in Native American education and he's endowed a significant scholarship for Native Americans at the University of Minnesota. His greatest accomplishment includes raising two sons and 26 years of marriage. The Parisian family enjoys outdoor pursuits at Pamelot, their farm in Tennessee and at the Ghost Ranch, their ranch on the Yellowstone River in Montana. For media requests contact the firm via email: ChippewaPartners (at) gmail dot com, on Twitter: @DeanParisian. Global 404-202-8173