Gary Rogan comments on NBC...............

There is a new prime-time game show on NBC that is the first purely probabilistic game show that I have ever seen. The rules are simple. You start out with a number of briefcases containing amounts from $0.01 to $1,000,000. Choose a briefcase. Then as each round progresses, you pick a particular briefcase to open to reveal it's contents. You then must either stay with your original briefcase choice or make a "deal" with the "banker" to accept its cash offer in exchange for whatever dollar amount is in your chosen case.

I've watched a few episodes and observed the following: (a) contestants don't recognize that this is a purely probabilistic game that has a simple optimum strategy for which they can prepare in advance (b) as long as there are large numbers on the board they usually continue to play and eventually give up once all the large numbers and the incentive they provide are gone (c) the friends contestants bring, usually help form a consensus to continue longer than indicated by the optimum strategy by encouraging the contestant to be "daring". The family usually has a somewhat more moderating effect because they can use the money, unless some kid becomes the "decision maker", in which case he usually acts like a "friend".

While the game is utterly devoid of any intellectual content outside of the realm of probability, I found it a useful lesson in market-like pricing mechanism in action. It's superficially similar to the "Sultan's Dowry" problem but simpler because no initial discovery is needed.