April 2020 Montana Quarantine

From where I sit at Ghost Ranch

Montana has been one of the better places on earth for the last couple of months.  Eating fresh fish out of the Yellowstone and all the deer and elk in the freezer has been a treat.   The county I reside in doesn't have a single case of the Covid 19 and neither do the counties on either side of my county.  Lucky?  Probably.  

I probably aren't deemed as brilliant or educated as all of the "experts" in epidemiology and virus treatments as so many Americans now seem to be.  Heaven's sake, they watch CNN or scour Facebook getting their daily dose of intelligence.  Many are even acting as lawyers with expertise in constitutional law!   (I am ashamed my constitutional law book when I was in law school was authored by  Laurence Tribe, truly one of the liberal elite!).  As for me, armed with an economics degree and 38 years watching price, volume, pain, fear and greed collide on my screens it's been eye-opening to hear so many outlandish, socialistic ideas floated about.

I do have some thoughts.  Here are five that I'll share from my perch this fine morning at the Ghost Ranch in Montana.    

One, capitalism seems to be in awful short supply.  There will be a price to pay for the trillions spent.  Once again, government saving bankrupt companies isn't capitalism.

Two, the lies, politics and lack of common sense from  media and politicians was and is hard to stomach.   I have tuned out all TV including CNBC, home of some entertaining cheerleaders.  My screens tell me all I need to know.  The screens also tell me how inept management and greed and incompetence in corporate board rooms as well as Wall Street continues unabated. 

Three,  years ago I knew there was going to be a time to get more equity exposure that should permit me to own stocks for the rest of my life without worry.  I knew there was an exogenous factor, I called it an X factor, that would knock markets down and allow entry points where I probably don't need to ever worry again about prices.  Other factors yes, factors like inflation, taxes, devaluation and increasing my income from my investment portfolio.  If you are reading this you probably remember some commentary on my thoughts. 

A few years ago, I took a stance of caution in my investment practice.   I had upset clients because I took a cautious stance and they tired of waiting for the calamity that was to come.   I wished them well and hope they are in a good place with their assets.

I was hunting hard with friends so it took 10 days after Trump was elected before I was all in.  Since then I  was able to double my portfolio and took on a lot of risk.   Today, my portfolio hasn't changed in the number of holdings I own.  My thinking was simply to ramp equity exposure as the market came down.  Greed and fear don't change, you have to buy things on sale.  The investment business is the only one I know where when things are on sale, no one wants to go to the store!   I only changed the percentages between fixed income holdings and equity holdings and continue to own gold and gold mining shares which should continue to advance because the printing hasn't stopped at the FED.   Disney will some day continue to entertain, Amazon will continue to deliver, UPS will do the same, Exxon will fill up my gas tank, you get the drift, stocks will some day go on to new highs and the down markets in hindsight will only have been temporary.   

I have taken many calls from friends and former clients asking me what to do.   My answer has been consistent and simple.   Don't do anything.  Don't sell at the bottom of a temporary decline.   This too will pass.  I am thinking it will be 2023 before we get back to whatever normal is.   Studies have shown that three years is about all an institution can take of negative pain in an asset class before they liquidate their holdings.  In three years Trump should still be in office and stocks will help solve problems down the road.   For those who called and emailed and said they couldn't take the pain and sold their equity holdings there is nothing I can say other than I feel bad for you.

Four, there is more pain to come.  The criminal global banking cabal is in charge of the purchasing power of your dollars.  You better be thinking about the devaluation of your money.  Besides, if you think Covid 19 is bad wait until they roll out Covid 20!

Five,  the fear shown by society has been eye-opening.  Too few fear the sickness of the surveillance state and fear of government overreach. The world is still on a dopamine, hypomanic binge and fearing FEMA, NIH, the FED, DOJ, SEC, FINRA, CME, FBI should be enough to give anyone with common sense reason to pause.

The Yellowstone River this morning is quiet.  Almost dull.  In a scant 30 days it will be swollen and raging from the melting snowfields in the headwaters high in Yellowstone  Park in the most remote, pristine spot in the United States.  Like markets and life, the Yellowstone River every day is different. 

We have survived thousands of years as humans.  There is a reason we have survived.  We are good at risk management.  If you need a doctor the six best doctors are sunshine, water, rest, air, exercise and good nutrition.  Make your immune system better.  Every day.  Work at it.  

I used to thrive on pressure and don't personally subscribe to fear or panic.  I always found adversity to be my best sparring partner.  Most people are scared of this virus killing them.  My Creator knows when I will punch out.  I don't worry about it.  I don't fear death.  

What I really fear is not living!

Life's challenges and storms will come again.  Be ready.  Know your purpose and how you will capture the opportunities offered living in the greatest nation in human history.  

And every day be thankful for the ability you have to use the greatest tool known to mankind, the freedom to choose your attitude!

Covid 19 repercussions

I haven't changed my behaviour one bit.   Other than this being the longest time in my life that I have not set foot in a restaurant nothing has changed.

Well maybe one thing.   When I head to the bathroom I used to spin the toilet paper roll like I was on the Wheel of Fortune.

Now, I take my time and act like I am cracking a safe.

HARVARD

Harvard University.    A university with over $40,000,000,000 in assets in their endowment fund took $9,000,000 under the "CARES ACT" while so many small businesses are being told that funds to help them have run out.

It's a big club and I, nor you, are in it.

Fun. What's your definition?

When you ask anyone what makes them happy or what do they consider real fun or how they define success, most will look at you like you just asked them for the theorem to calculate the pull of gravity.  Isn't that amazing?   So few can define their happiness.

Here is fun.   Simple.    FUN!

GHOST RANCH FUN

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Flying into Billings, Montana you will be picked up and delivered to the ranch by Pam's husband, Dean.   Once at the ranch there are plenty of things to do besides hiking, fishing, rock hounding, enjoying wild game meals, photography, exercising, visiting the world famous, “Jersey Lilly” Bar and Café in Ingomar, Montana.  Your trip is at your leisure whether you hike, canoe or want to try any of the other activities the Parisian family enjoys.  Dean heartily recommends naps, reading, zero use of TV or social media, light exercise, star gazing, evening bonfires and doing it all again the next day.  Pam believes that while women of a certain age may no longer be designated scenic, they are most certainly still wild.  There is no finer place than the unspoiled Yellowstone River of Montana to really unwind, let the hair down and appreciate  lasting and meaningful relationships.  One might say that the Ghost Ranch is an exceptional place for friends to hang out and savor the scenic sights, sounds and moments that Montana provides. 

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It's your trip so pick and choose what you feel or do nothing;  simply recharge and relax!

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Pam says the ranch offers a relaxing, laid back respite from the rigors of work and  recommends at least a 5-day, 4-night excursion to  best enjoy it.  Pam suggests a trip be scheduled during the early fall months when the mosquitoes are quiet and the beautiful fall foliage is “in color”.

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We can’t guarantee a gorgeous Montana sunset every night but we think it's a distinct possibility!

 

Here are other things to consider if you feel like it;

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• Watch deer with high-powered optics!  The ranch is home to a large number of of deer.

• Rock & agate hunting

• Pick your deer stand for your photography backdrops!

• Hunt for fresh water mussel shells 

• Fishing

• Shooting  (Dean is a Range Safety Officer)

• Canoeing

• Hunt for buffalo bones along the river bank.  The Yellowstone River was the summer home to thousands of bison as written in the journals of Lewis & Clark.  The herds were so loud at night it was difficult to sleep.   During spring flooding, hundreds of buffalo would drown and be swept downstream where their bones were covered by sentiment and now are fairly easy to find along the bank.

• Bird watching, especially sandhill cranes

• View and photograph large numbers of deer fawns

• Kite flying

• Wildlife photography

• Hunt agates and petrified wood

• Drone photography

• Evening campfires on the river

• Star gazing

• Shed antler hunting

• Hunt for wild turkey feathers during the molt.

• Sit on the river bank and enjoy the sights and sounds of the famed Yellowstone River the same way William Clark and Sacagawea experienced it in 1806.  

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We know that Ghost Ranch life will get into your soul and we've been told on numerous times it can change one's outlook on dealing with stress and urban life.  We hope your visit will create some of the best memories of any vacation.

AMAZON

Amazon.    A company I have owned for years and years.

Today, a few scant weeks after the market bottom on March 23 the shares are ramping to all-time highs.

I hate to say it.   To Chris Berg (rolling in his grave), Sun Khang, Roy Grohs, Jerry Wangsness I apologize.

Everything I was taught in my college economics classes has turned out to be a lie.

Wake up America

We live in a country that has a currency that is dying.

America has $100 plus trillion in debts for unfunded liabilities.

80 million producers cannot maintain this socialist system. Open borders.

Endless wars (financed on the back of you, your children, and their children.)

50 million eat courtesy of food stamps.

When governments die they tax the people in all ways to make the inevitable go on.

We are debt slaves. Who holds the debts? Our masters. 

Those masters own both political parties. This is a truth.  With the Central Bank (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK) scamming us, nothing will be done as long as people have their TV's, ipods, shiny cars, marble countertop kitchens, and nights out for dinner. 

95% of so called educated people have no idea.  It's starting.

Bernie Sanders Socialist Repeats!

Now we get a choice between a rich white man with mental problems who's anti-women, has stood for racist policies, & is funded by big banks & financial institutions OR... Donald Trump.

Lower Brule Tribal Council. Then and now. Wake Up.

I put this out for Lower Brule Tribal members back in 2009.

https://www.deanparisian.com/2009/09/lower-brule-sioux-tribe.html

If ANYONE in a fiduciary position at Lower Brule would have taken a minute to look up Don Hunter and WESTROCK at the government website found here:

https://brokercheck.finra.org/firm/summary/114338


Lower Brule.  Look in the mirror. 

It’s War and I’m Winning!