In some ways it seems just like yesterday. Not much has changed except I am learning the game of golf. I have much to learn!
Dear Friends & Partners,
The heat and humidity is intense. I heard my first cicada this
morning so I know summer is here. I'm going to spend my Sunday hours writing
this synopsis so you know what I'm thinking at mid-year. First, let’s review
where we are and what we are up against. As you know by looking at your
brokerage statements for May things are a bit unsettled to put it mildly. May
was tough. Ugly. Real ugly. My 2012 investment thesis has been to expect a
repeat of 2011. No great shakes. I am
trying to stay defensive and keep a defensive posture. My posture in
staying defensive is because I think we are up against stock market regulators,
politicians, greedy bankers and half the nation looking for the “perfectly
legitimate excuse”. Life, like the markets, sometimes doesn't make sense and
for sure it isn't fair. I don't have an edge on Greek or Egyptian elections,
the Spanish banking system, what the European Central Bank, the International
Monetary Fund, the Chinese government, the U.S. Federal Reserve or what the
tough chick in Germany, Angela Merkel will do. I know we have a recession in
Europe, a Chinese economy that is slowing, a trending rise in unemployment in
America and we are running drone wars in Pakistan, Somalia, Yemen and,
unfortunately, still fully engaged in Afghanistan. Oh, and nearly 48,000,000
Americans using and abusing food stamps. Tell me, did I miss anything?
I do know our great country needs job creation and a recovery in
housing. To me, they are the big drivers of our economy. Corporate America
seems to be holding its own, but they are NOT expanding jobs. Can you blame
them? They are hoarding cash, which is paying nearly zero. Healthcare “reform”
looms as a key focal point, and we should get some clarity this week as the
Supreme Court decision is close. Our current healthcare system is ineffective, and that is where the debate should reside. The abuse and waste is obvious. If
you watch television or scour the internet, you know that Europe has chaos, the
banking system is running excessive leverage and risk, the budgets in virtually
every western country are out of control and the amounts of government debt are
only increasing. I accept all of that for what it is and I try to exploit the
opportunities. Working hard and working smart is difficult in this environment.
All that said, the stock market has not fallen off a cliff. Close, but the
market is still in a very small, positive uptrend. That is for now. By Friday
things could of course be much different.
My position has been one that has served me well. I am trying to keep perspective. To
look at the big picture, to remain positive and optimistic about our country,
our markets, and our way of life. I have tried to position portfolios to guard
against the ravages of inflation and central bank printing presses running at
the speed of light. And by the way, it’s an election year, so I'll leave it to
you to decide whose version of the truth you want to believe. What I know is
that politicians the world over are following their own self-interest. Their
only real goal is to remain in power as long as possible. Some things haven't
changed!
Here’s an issue I grapple with today. West Texas Intermediate
crude oil is trading down hard and near two year lows. That’s good for us at
the pump for sure. Stocks are still in a positive light. Just what is it that
stocks believe about our future that the all-important energy markets do not?
Is it deflation or inflation? Is the global slowdown in growth as reflected by
the demand picture of crude a better reflection of reality than what our U.S.
stock market is telling us? With $80 oil barrels demand has got to be slowing
or are the Saudi’s grasping for their last meal? And remember, the Bakken shale
is not a global oil supply game changer. The oil boom has been one of the
bright spots in this economy and at $80 oil that doesn't work. Oil shale, oil
sands, deepwater rigs, they are all expensive. Projects will slow or be
canceled at lower oil prices. Oil field workers may have to join the food stamp
nation!
I don't have a lot of insight as to where this market will be by
the end of the year. Nobody pays me to rub a crystal ball. They pay me to do
two things. They pay me to preserve their money and make it grow. I think
prudent money management is owning exposure to commodities whether it be gold,
gold mining shares, coal, silver or crude oil. There’s no sugar coating it. I
don't believe politicians and central planners (Bernanke and Geithner) who
continue to downplay, obfuscate and flat out lie about the current economic
reality. My effort in trying to decipher appropriate diversification parameters
amongst various asset classes remains the same. I don't take breaks in the
seriousness of the job you entrust me to do for you. There is no golf or
fishing trips to distract me. I still work a lot. I love my job. I work for the
best people in the world. And yes, the mistakes made rest solely upon my
shoulders. I still make mistakes. My biggest mistake year to date has been
holding Peabody Energy shares. Maybe you own some. Peabody Energy is the
largest private-sector coal company in the world. President Obama has basically
declared war on American coal companies. The company fuels approximately 10% of
the electricity generated in the United States and 2% of the electricity
generated throughout the world. They aren't going out of business any time
soon. In time we will know if I made another mistake.
I want you to know that if for any reason you need to reach me
please try via email or this phone number, 877-772-1621. I am going to be
visiting a client on the West Coast late this week. A cancer survivor. Never
forget as I tell so many, the biggest component of our net worth is still our
health.
I wish you the best summer season ever and hope you believe as I
do that the best is yet to come. As always I welcome your feedback, tips,
referrals, great recipes, jokes and phone calls.
We are the luckiest people on earth. We live in America!
Thank you for your trust and confidence.
Dean Parisian
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