10/26/2005 Briefly Speaking, by Victor Niederhoffer

It is with great respect and admiration that I relay some thoughts on yesterdays market action penned by Victor Niederhoffer. When my schedule permits, I expect 2006 will find me visiting the offices of Manchester Trading and the Matador Fund and many thanks to Mr. Steve Wisdom for the gracious offer to send a car from the City. Here is some fodder for the minions that don't believe. They don't get it. Ask yourself, and no BS here, have you ever met a successful pessimist? This is from Victor........


"It is hard to measure negative sentiment and to figure out what levels or changes in level are predictive. However, if articles that I have read attributing yesterday's 0.2% decline in the S&P and 0.1% decline in the Dow are typical, then there is gloom and doom all over. Consumer confidence is at an all-time low; Texas Instruments and Amazon both reported disappointing profits; the S&P 500's earnings growth is expected to drop to 6% from 11% next year; higher energy prices are putting consumers under a lot of pressure going into the holiday season. There's a heavy overload of negative sentiment overhanging the market, the bears say; yesterday's rise was just a reflex rally that will be stalled by the same. It has been a month since the market has managed to rise for two consecutive days. The market's terrible state is shown by the fact that we are on target, according to the doomsdayists, for the worst October in recent times and the worst monthly performance since July 2004. Such were just some of the bearish factors cited by my favorite wire service (the Collab's former employer). This was on a 7-point drop in the Dow; just imagine what would have been said if the average had declined its normal 50 points. Such is the chronic pessimism from which the phoenix soars."